As the war grinds on, the situation in Ukraine is dire: millions of Ukrainians are refugees, the economy is in shambles, their government is broke, and the military suffers frequent and heavy loses. Meanwhile, Russia occupies nearly a quarter of their land, with no end in sight. As I argue in a previous blog, Russia will not stop so long as they continue to dominate on the battlefield.
Unfortunately for Zelenskyy and his beleaguered nation, he is in no position to negotiate. Any serious attempt to reach a ceasefire now would result in a humiliating defeat and large concessions to Russia. The Ukrainian people are stuck between a rock and hard place. As the worldwide recession deepens, foreign money will likely diminish1. Worse, European support for the war continues to fade as the reality of a winter without Russian natural gas looms2.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
The Ukrainian economy is on life support. Since the war started, its GDP is half of what it would be otherwise. The government can’t pay its debts. And the Hryvnias (Ukraine dollar) is junk 3. Without foreign financial support, this war would have ended long ago. Support from NATO countries is the only thing keeping the lights on in Ukraine. If you ever had any doubts, it should be clear that the war is between NATO and Russia.
The war machine is a voracious consumer. Not only does it destroy life and property, but it also reallocates productive resources away from building the economy. Of course, this is true for both sides. However, while Ukraine can’t afford to pay its troops, Russia benefits from record high gas prices4. Since Western money is the only thing keeping them afloat, Ukraine’s military is effectively a million-man mercenary army for NATO5.
War Update
Since my last update on the war, Russia slowly but surely advanced in Donetsk. With troops in Bakhmut, the stage is set for the battle Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. If these towns fall, Russia will have finally broken through the maze of Ukrainian trenches and fortifications. Since 2014, Ukrainian forces built a WWI style trench system that covers the entire Donbas region6. Once on the other side, Russian tank warfare can resume.
Russian forces also moved to encircle Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Located on the eastern border with Russia, this city fell early in the war but was later retaken by Ukraine. Now it appears to be Putin’s next target.
In the south, Russia reinforced Kherson in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive7. Western news outlets warned about an offensive for months, with nothing materializing. Ukraine occasionally probed near Kherson, but nothing major. Beside trying to destroy some bridges on the Dnipro river, the counteroffensive is nonexistent8. I suspect the “counteroffensive” was a crafty diversion tactic meant to tie down Russian forces, thereby slowing advances in Donbas.
Desperate Times Call for Desperate Measures
One of the strangest and most frightening developments is the shelling of a nuclear power station located near Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces have occupied the power plant for months and now it is under attack from Ukrainian artillery. Although they deny it, Ukrainian forces recently began shelling the power plant9. The move is as dangerous as it is foolish and endangers the lives of nearly a million Ukrainian citizens.
Unfortunately, the Zelenskyy regime desperately wants attention. He knows that the only way to survive is with more foreign aid. I believe this savage act was intended to keep the war in the news and to use Western media to blame Russia. If it turns out to be Ukrainian shelling, then it clearly shows his regime is on the verge of collapse and that he would do anything to stay in power. Media accusations that Russia is responsible for the shelling are so ridiculous that they aren’t worth rebutting.
Looking Forward
With winter approaching, I believe Russia has a quickly closing window to launch a major offensive. I believe they will strike in Odesa, in an attempt to knock out the Ukrainian economy. The UK military reported troop build ups near Kherson, which could be used to enter a new phase of the war10.
If I’m right and the Russians attack Odesa, I expect a battle similar to Mariupol11. I hope that I’m wrong, however, because the city of Mariupol is nothing but a pile of rubble now. I believe Odesa is the key to a Russian victory and Ukraine’s last chance to stop the Russian onslaught. Now is the time for the collective West to give Ukraine everything it has before it’s too late.
Finally, the Putin regime is planning a referendum in the Zaporizhzhia region for permanently joining the Russian Federation12. I don’t see how this potential vote could possibly be fair or the count honest. Like the votes in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea, Putin will surely use a yes-vote as justification for additional conquest. I have no doubt that the referendum will result in ‘Yes’, not because of popular support, but because it will be rigged and only Russian sympathizers will show up to vote.
Conclusion
The war drags on and fighting will continue until a decisive blow occurs. For Russia, victory comes with the capture of either Kiev or Odesa. And I believe Odesa is the only target that makes military sense. For Ukraine, victory is elusive. Even if they stop the next Russian offensive, a quarter of their nation is likely gone forever. Their best bet is to stall as long as possible and hope and pray that NATO finally comes through with enough supplies to turn the tide of the war.
From the beginning, I’ve thought this war was unnecessary and foolish. The Western powers wanted to provoke Russia and they succeeded. Now, Ukraine is on the verge of collapse while Western powers begin to pullback. Instead, they should double down and give Ukraine the support they need to survive. If not, Russia will likely win this war and challenge NATO for the balance of power in Europe.
Without an armed Germany, Russia will be the dominant power on the continent. And with the US in decline, this outcome spells disaster for European peace. I wonder if NATO fully understands what on the line with this war. European nations aren’t going to defeat Putin with hugs and candle-light vigils. If they want NATO to survive, they need to militarize now and fight against the clear and present danger that Putin poses to the continent.
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