Russia invaded Ukraine 5 months ago. Since then, they’ve made slow and steady progress towards Putin’s stated goal of conquering the Donbas. Despite having numerical superiority, Ukrainian forces have suffered devastating losses. Meanwhile, Russia’s much smaller force continues to replace its dead and wounded with experienced reserves. If the war continues to favor the Russians, Ukraine risks a total defeat.
With that in mind, doesn’t it make sense to broker a peace deal? Many European leaders, including the French and Germans, certainly think so1. And there are clear signs that sanctions against Russia hurt the rest of world more than the Russians2. This week it looks as though both sides reached a deal to allow grain exports from Odesa3. However, despite the vast support for peace, a deal is exceptionally unlikely. And if one is signed, it won’t last.
Terms
Let’s start with why a deal is currently off the table. The first obvious issue is land. Russia won’t accept anything less than all of Donbas, the recognition of Crimea, and the capture of adjoining land (the so-called land-bridge4). As it stands now, the Zelenskyy regime says they will never sign a deal that cedes land. So the war burns on, with both side believing success is just around the corner.
But even if Zelenskyy offers a deal that includes the entire land-bridge, Putin would still reject it. Why? Because Russia clearly has the military advantage. As long as Russia has the edge on the battlefield, Putin would be a fool to stop fighting until Ukraine’s military is completely destroyed. Along with land grabs, this is another goal of the Russian campaign5.
When you think about it, Russia has no choice. Even though not a member, Ukraine is fully backed by NATO’s arsenal. As soon as a peace agreement is signed, NATO will rebuild the Ukrainian armed forces. Further, it is extremely likely that NATO forces will occupy Ukraine under the banner of peace keepers. In either case, it would be suicidal for Putin to accept an agreement that allows further NATO armaments. As I’ve argued before, NATO’s arming of Ukraine was a major contributing factor for Putin’s invasion. There is absolutely no reason to believe he has changed on this critical issue.
Losers Never Last
Politics is the other major reason why a peace deal is unlikely. As noted above, any deal would result in a thorough defeat for Zelenskyy (as detailed in a previous blog). It is hard to see his regime surviving such a defeat. There is mounting evidence that he is losing internal support, as seen by the recent purges of his security services6. But as long as war rages and NATO continues pumping supplies into Ukraine, he can argue that his forces will prevail. Unfortunately, this argument loses credence by the week, but it is all the regime has left.
But the primary reason the war rages is due to NATO’s desire to prolong it. Simply put, NATO wants war with Russia. They’ve been eager for war with Russia for years. Notable war hawks, like Clinton and Graham, have advocated for war since at least 20147. And aid to Ukraine is contingent on them fighting a full scale war8.
Current State of Affairs
So the war continues. NATO ships billions in equipment. Ukraine dumps more and more innocent young men into the gears of war. And Russia further mobilizes for war9. The results are tragic and predictable. Ukraine loses roughly a thousand men per day, between deaths and injuries.
At this point, nothing short of complete victory will stop the war. Western sanctions have not only failed, but they’ve actually helped the Russians. Historically high gasoline prices decimated public support for the war and filled the coffers of the Russian war machine. Using creative work arounds, Russia continues to export oil through intermediaries like Saudi Arabia10.
And, just this week, the EU began easing sanctions on Russia11. With the looming disaster in Germany of running out of natural gas for winter, it would appear that Russia’s bargaining position only continues to strengthen.
Looking Forward
In my series of blog posts on Ukraine, I’ve always focused on the current facts by parsing through Western and Russian propaganda. The few predictions that I’ve made have all stood the test of time, and hopefully you’ve benefited from my analysis. By the way, if you do, please share a link to my site with your friends and family (its 100% free).
It should be obvious from this blog that the war will not stop any time soon. But when will it stop and why? I believe fighting for this year will come to a conclusion around the end of November. Winter in Russia or Ukraine is no time to start or conduct major offensives. Although fighting will probably continue over the winter, major offensives from either side will not. This break will give both sides time to rearm, resupply, train new conscripts, and plan new offensives.
Given this four month window, I believe Russia will double down on the war and try to deliver a knockout blow. The Ukrainian economy and military are in shambles12. Russia destroys troops and equipment faster than Ukraine and NATO delivery them. Even the much touted HIMARS won’t be enough to turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor, although Russia clearly fears them.
Summer Offensive
Before Russia delivers the knockout punch, they must finish destroying the Ukrainian army in Donetsk. And this will take time. Hopefully for Ukraine, they can stall until late fall. I expect Russia to aggressively push for victory in Donetsk by mid September. If so, the smartest place to deliver a knockout blow would be Odesa.
Odesa is the crown jewel of Ukraine. A Russian victory there would completely landlock the country, putting its economy at the mercy of Russia. If Putin captures Odesa, then the Zelenskyy regime would have no choice but to negotiate. Otherwise, the whole nation of Ukraine would be fair game for the invaders.
If a military knockout happens, I see the regime falling too, with either a pro-Russian or a neutral government emerging. On the flip side, Ukraine and NATO must defend Odesa at all costs. Their primary goal is either a stalemate or pause in fighting with hopes of buying enough time. As it stands now, economics, the war, and time are all on the side of the Russians. Something must change before it is too late.
Conclusion
Wars are inflection points in history. Unless the West changes the path of events in Ukraine, Russia will successfully challenge and defeat the West. That would be huge news and would likely change the course of history forever. After the complete debacle in Afghanistan, it was only a matter of time before Putin tested American strength13. Foolishly, NATO pushed and poked the Bear giving Putin the needed cover to react.
Encouraging war in Ukraine may turn out to be the biggest foreign policy blunder since the fall of the Soviet Union. If it is, then the conclusion to my previous blog post (Tipping Point) will be nothing more than wishful thinking. However, this outcome is not certain. Russia could misstep and head towards Kiev or Kharkiv. Ukraine may stall long enough to find some sort of middle ground or ceasefire. Just about anything could happen. But all events point towards total defeat as the only way to stop this terrible and senseless war.
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