What Does War with Ukraine Look Like?

The history and culture of Ukraine is intricately linked with Russia. With the expansion of its empire, Russia dominated Eastern Europe and controlled the area that now comprises Ukraine. Today, Russians are the second largest ethnic group in Ukraine and almost a third of the population are native Russian speakers. Ukraine’s capital city, Kiev, even served as the capital of Russia for a brief period of time¹.

Fall of an Empire

In 1991, Ukraine withdrew from the Soviet Union and became an independent country. In the thirty years since then, its government has strengthened ties with the European Union, but has yet to become a member nation. Despite the shift west, however, Russia remains their largest trading partner². Along with economic ties, Russia has a large political influence, especially in the east.

Internally, the nation is conflicted over deepening ties with Europe and the US, or whether it should pivot towards Russia. Ironically, this conflict affects Russia as much as it affects Ukraine. This is especially true with regards to joining NATO. In 2008, NATO announced membership for Ukraine, once it reached certain governance metrics³.

First-Strike Missiles

But why does Russia care whether Ukraine is a member of NATO or not? Simple, missiles. This is Putin’s Cuban Missile Crisis, during which JFK said is an “explicit threat to American security.”⁴. Anybody who lived through that crisis should remember that JFK was willing to risk nuclear war with the USSR to prevent first strike missiles on Cuba.

Why would this be any different for Putin and Russia? Once Ukraine is a member of NATO, missiles will surely follow. They always do⁵. This is just too close for Putin. Cuba is roughly 1,000 miles from Washington DC. Kiev is less than 500 miles from Moscow. And once in NATO, nothing would stop the US from deploying defensive or first-strike missiles on Russia’s front porch.

How Russia Does Business

Now that it is clear what’s at stake for Putin, let’s review some modern history to see how Russia operates. Like Ukraine, Russia has historically dominated the Caucasus region, which includes Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

In 2008, NATO also promised Georgia membership. As you can guess, Putin wasn’t a fan of this offer. When opportunity stuck, Russia invaded Georgia. Technically Georgia initiated the fighting by attacking the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Regardless of who started it, one thing is clear. Russia ended it. In five days of fighting, the Russian military crushed Georgia’s military.

The war, known as The August War, established a clear precedence that Putin is willing to use his armed forces to affect politics in former Russian enclaves⁶. As a result, the two breakaway regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, became self-governing, vassal states of Russia.

Cry Me A Naval Base

When discussing Ukraine, Russia, and breakaway territories, it would be foolish to ignore Crimea. In 2014, shortly after Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution ended, Russia began securing the border between the Crimean Peninsula and mainland Ukraine. Using questionable techniques, the Crimean security council administered a vote of the general population to join Russia. Three days later, Putin signed the treaty and, thereby, annexed the region⁷.

Of course, Putin’s aim wasn’t to control more land. The territory is roughly the size of Vermont, which is spit in the ocean compared to Russia’s massive landmass. Instead, Putin wanted to permanently secure access to the deep-water port at Sevastopol. It is the only warm water port for Russia’s navy and has been a part of Russia since the days of Catherine the Great.

Looking Forward

Not only does Putin have a history of using the military, he is willing to invade neighboring countries when threatened or when the right opportunity arises. Although aggressive with his foreign policy, Putin is not the monster that US politicians makes him out to be⁸. But he is cunning, and Putin does not fear war. So how is the current conflict likely to go down?

First, Putin recognizes that Biden is an unpopular president, especially with regards to Afghanistan⁹. Because of Biden’s weak position, it is safe to assume that Putin believes he can push around Ukraine without fear of reprisal.

Further, Putin wants to inflict enough pain on Ukraine to make its leaders think twice about joining NATO. If he uses force now, then the precedence is clear that he will violently resist missile installations in the future. The real question is, how far are both sides willing to go?

Breakaway Regions

In the eastern most regions of Ukraine, Russians are the dominate ethnicity, language and culture. This is especially true in Luhansk and Donetsk¹⁰. During the turbulence of 2014, these regions held a referendum to declare independence from Ukraine. Since then, fighting between Russian backed rebels and Ukraine’s military has claimed more than 10,000 lives¹¹.

If history is any guide, Putin will escalate tensions in the region and will likely invade the two breakaway regions (collectively the size of a small US state). Without the backing of NATO or the US, Russia would easily prevail. The two regions would officially breakaway, and Ukraine’s military would withdraw.

However, if Washington gets involved, the conflict may drag on for many more years. Depending on how much the US is willing to spend, it could resemble a modern Cold War conflict. The only reason that I doubt this outcome is due to the tremendous cost to the US and Ukraine vs. the relative ease for the Russians. Further, I doubt the US will send ground troops. Instead, I see Washington providing arms and air support for Ukraine’s soldiers. The last thing the American people want is another pointless, unwinnable war.

Conclusion

The world sits on the verge of another bloody war. Russia is determined to push Ukraine and NATO to their breaking point. From here, it is anybody’s guess on what will happen. Will the West continue with its foolish bid to extend NATO further east (NATO is already solidly in Poland)? Will Russia preemptively invade the breakaway oblasts/regions?

This conflict has the makings of another debacle for American foreign policy. The best case scenario is that NATO drops its bid with Ukraine, and Russia sends its troops home. The worse case scenario is a long, bloody war which drains America’s resources and credibility. Talk of nuclear war is a absurd, but even a conventional war should be avoided at all costs.

Given how foolish America’s foreign policy has been in the past 20 years, it wouldn’t surprise me if the US continued to poke the Russian Bear. Let’s hope at some point, cooler heads preveal.

Concordia

In the book, Concordia, There Must be a Better Way, a team of dedicated pioneers establishes a new nation. Like Ukraine, Concordia has to balance its relationships between the superpowers.

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