War with Russia is a Trap for Never Ending Conflict
Since my original blog on War With Ukraine, the war powers dug in, and Russia invaded Ukraine. With full scale war on the brink, it is important to understand who is involved, what is on the line, and what the possible outcomes are.
Who is Involved
On one side is Ukraine and NATO, which includes France, Germany, UK, and Turkey. For this conflict, however, NATO might as well mean the US. Most other members are not interested in war1. Although, most of Europe will be following the events of this war very closely.
On the other side is Russia, the two break away oblasts of Ukraine (Luhansk and Donetsk), and Belarus. Both Russia and Belarus border Ukraine, and both are fearful of NATO expansion. It is unclear exactly what role Belarus would play in a full scale war. However, given the fact that they are in the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia, it is safe to assume their involvement. At a minimum, they currently allow Russia to stage operations in their territory.
What is on the Line
The immediate conflict is around the future of the Donbas region, which is a coal mining and industrial area of southeastern Ukraine. Most recognize the Donbas region as consisting of Luhansk and Donetsk. Both are heavily Russian in culture, language and history, despite residing in modern-day Ukraine.
Within the Donbas, rebels formed two breakaway republics in 2014: Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR)2. These republics are the size of small states, and otherwise insignificant.
But Russia backed their independence as a move to punish Ukraine for attempting to join NATO. Further, Russia opposed the NATO backed coup that occurred in February of 2014 known as the Maidan Revolution. This is truly the heart of the issue: Russia is fundamentally at odds with the puppet government in Ukraine and its move towards Europe / NATO / US.
Background on the War
The current conflict traces its roots back to November 2013, when President Viktor Yanukovych canceled plans for Ukraine to join the EU3. Although not a popular move, Yanukovych was the legitimate leader of Ukraine. By February 2014, government snipers killed over 100 protesters. Then the US assisted a coup and setup a puppet government favorable towards the EU/US4. The protests and coup of early 2014 are known as the Maidan Revolution, which forever changed the history of Ukraine.
The Maidan Revolution kicked off a string of events the lead to annexation of Crimea (by Russia) and the breakaway of Luhansk and Donetsk. Not only was the Donbas region friendly towards Russia, its people heavily favored President Yanukovych, and strongly opposed the Maidan Revolution. With Russian arms and support, rebels declared independence from Ukraine. In April of 2014, Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic officially broke away from Ukraine as semi-independent countries.
Initially fighting between the breakaway republics and Ukraine was intense. After nearly a year of conflict, a ceasefire agreement was signed, called The Minsk-2 Agreement5. Since then, life for the region settled down, but small skirmishes and shelling continued (to this day). At least 10,000 people have died in this conflict since 2014, with no end in sight6.
Recent Developments
Events moved quickly during the past month, culminating with the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 20227. Sanctions against Russia have been common during the past 10 year8. Although seemingly innocent, sanctions are in fact an act of war9. Not only has the US been pouring arms in Ukraine, the Biden Administration promised even more severe sanctions against Russia in the case of invasion10.
It is unclear as to why Russia finally invaded, but it is clear that Russia and Belarus were planning the invasion for a while11. A big step towards war occurred with the evacuation of civilians from the Donbas region on Friday, February 18th12. Despite Putin’s strongman reputation, even he desires a legal justification for war. On Monday February 21th, Russia recognized the independent countries of DPR and LPR13.
Since Ukraine continues to shell the breakaway republics, Putin had the legal cover required to invade Ukraine. Instead of an unprovoked invasion, Putin claimed it was in response to Ukrainian aggression in the Donbas region. The full extent of the invasion remains hazy. However, Russian strikes have occurred across the entire nation of Ukraine, not just in the breakaway republics. This includes numerous sightings of Russian ground troops crossing the border as well.
Possible Outcome: No Help
While the bombs continue to fall, Putin demands that Ukraine completely demilitarize14. He insists that Ukraine no longer seeks admission to NATO and for the permanent exclusion of NATO’s tactical nuclear weaponry. Since that is unlikely to happen anytime soon, it is my guess that the war between Ukraine and Russia will continue to escalate.
The most likely scenario is that the world will not help Ukraine, except with arms and sanctions. If this occurs, then Russia will continue to expand the war until Ukraine complies with demands. This type of war would likely last weeks or months, but not years. In the end, Russia would force Ukraine into recognizing the independence of DPR and LPR. Regime change would also be likely, resulting in complete embarrassment for the West.
Possible Outcome: Sanctions Work
Sanctions against Russia will significantly hurt their economy and possibly erode Putin’s internal support. After all, waging a war in Ukraine requires the support of the Russian people and a tremendous consumption of resources. If war and sanctions are too much for the Russian people, then Putin will have no choice but to pull back troops. This type of cold war of attrition could last for years, but at a low intensity, similar to the past eight years.
In this scenario, Putin could be internally overthrown or settle for a humiliating defeat. This seems unlikely, however, without the support of China. And since China just opened further trade with Russia, Western sanctions might be toothless or take too long to make a real difference15.
Possible Outcome: Complete Defeat
Another scenario is that Putin used the conflict in Donbas as a smokescreen to shield his real goal: Ukraine. Occupation and control over Ukraine is the ultimate prize for Russian expansion. And the West needs to do everything it can to prevent this very real outcome. By themselves, the Ukrainian military would eventually fold, and Putin could occupy the entire country. But with the help of NATO, the West can avoid this devastating outcoming.
For this scenario to materialize, either the Ukrainian government needs to collapse, or Russia uses overwhelming force. I think NATO will provide enough weapons, intelligence, bombs, sanctions, and financial support to prevent an overwhelming Russian victory. This leaves an internal collapse as the only realistic scenario for a complete Ukrainian defeat.
As strange as an internal collapse sounds, this is a somewhat likely scenario, especially if Russia dominates the war. Putin is popular within Ukraine, and many Ukrainian military leaders were once part of Soviet military. All it takes is a dedicated group generals to stage a coup, and Putin would secure another reliable ally / puppet regime.
Possible Outcome: Doughboys Step In
Probably the worse possible outcome would be a hot war between the US and Russia on Ukrainian soil. Of course, the US could attack Russia directly, not just its troops in Ukraine. However, that risks total nuclear war. The US attacked hapless Iraq with over 150,000 troops back in 200316. But even with that many troops, Russia would be a formidable opponent.
Therefore, I believe this scenario is extremely unlikely. Americans don’t have the appetite to see thousands of dead soldiers ever month, especially not with such a weak and unpopular president as Biden. If the US becomes directly involved, it will start with naval and air support. Then support would expand with the use of “advisors” and special forces. I doubt the US will ever deploy ground troops. Even if Biden wanted ground troops, there simply is no popular support for such a move.
If the US participates in a hot war, I see Russia backing off Ukraine at large and focusing strictly on the breakaway republics. Russia needs to fight the US street-to-street, man-to-man for any chance of success. But even with an insurgency campaign, I believe they would ultimately back off and settle for a compromise of some sort.
Conclusion
So, what are we to make of war in Ukraine? Obviously, war is a senseless waste of precious human life and resources. Hopefully for the people of Ukraine, the war will be over quickly and with minimal causalities. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen. Instead, innocent citizens will likely suffer a long and bloody war. Putin surely wouldn’t have escalated the conflict to war unless he thought Russia could outlast Ukraine and its allies.
NATO and the Biden Administration are stuck between a rock and hard place. If they do too little, Putin will have free range to continue acquiring former Soviet enclaves. If they do too much, nuclear war could result. The Obama Administration started this mess with the original regime change back in 2014, and anything short of a complete victory will clearly discredit NATO and the US.
I think the best outcome is for Ukraine to cede claims to the Donbas region and to recognize the breakaway republics. Further, Ukraine and NATO should agree to be friends, but not get married. It is clear that Putin is willing to die on that hill, and it would be foolish for the US to continue provoking Russia. Just like withdrawal from Afghanistan, the US should diffuse this conflict, and move on with life.
Concordia
In the book, Concordia, There Must be a Better Way, a team of dedicated pioneers establishes a new nation. Unlike the breakaway republics of the Donbas, they have permission from the Chilean government to peacefully build the country of Concordia.
Unfortunately for these intrepid pioneers, Concordia struggles for international recognition. Similar to the Ukrainian conflict, the great Western powers refuse to recognize their independence. This leads to conflict, which stretches the nation to its breaking point.
To found out what happens, buy the book on Amazon. It is an exciting novel that challenges your assumptions and entertains you in the process.
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