Why War in Ukraine Forces Permanent Mass Migration

While war rages in Ukraine, over ten million people have fled their homes¹. This staggering number is more than 25% of the population, and the numbers continue to swell. Of the fleeing refugees, roughly half are sheltered within Ukraine while the other half left the country altogether.

At only one month into fighting, these numbers are shocking. I’m sure as the war continues, even more will leave their homes and likely their nation too. If the war lasts long enough, up to half of the population may leave, similar to the Syrian Civil war². The difference, of course, is that Ukraine has a larger population and the speed at which the war has displaced innocent bystanders.

History Lesson

Unfortunately, this war is not unique and neither are mass migrations. A couple of famous migrations are the Irish and the Romani. Both involved millions of people, most of which never returned to their countries of origin.

The Irish diaspora is difficult to accurately count, especially since most Irish descendants have mixed ethnicity. One estimate puts the number at 70 million³. Given that only 7 million currently live in Irish that seems pretty high. But regardless of the actual number, it is safe to conclude that significantly more Irish people live outside the country than within it.

Unlike war-trigged mass migrations, Irish migrations were due to starvation and poverty. The Irish Potato Famine alone forced over a million Irish to flee the country⁴. But even after the famine subsided, few people returned. The Irish migrations of the 1800s are perfect examples of how economic opportunity encourages migrants to permanently abandon their country of origin. Simply put, most Irish decedents prefer to live in the US or UK, despite their national heritage.

Gypsy Road

Another interesting example is that of the Romani people, also known as Gypsies. The original migrations occurred over 1,500 years ago. Without good written records, it is difficult to know their precise origin or cause of migrations. Recently DNA and linguistic evidence suggests mass migrations from Northern India westward into and throughout Europe⁵. Since those times, the Romani people endured great hardships, including extreme racism, ostracism, legal discrimination⁶, and genocide⁷.

Similar to estimates for Irish, it is hard to know exactly how many Romani people there are today. One scientific estimate places around 11 million in Europe⁸. It is simply amazing to think that something so bad occurred fifteen hundred years ago that continues to affect the lives of millions of people today. War is the only force with that type of power. And many scholars believe the Turkish invasions of India were the original events that displaced so many people⁹.

War in Ukraine

Obviously, the Ukrainian migration is different from these two historical examples. However, both are interesting lessons to consider when thinking about the troubles ahead for Ukrainian migrants (or any mass migration for that matter).

It is impossible to know what the ultimate outcome of the war will be. The Donbas region in Ukraine has been at war for over 7 years, and it appears that Putin wants to bring a similar path of destruction to the rest of Ukraine. If the war continues on a similar path, then I have no doubt that millions more will fee Ukraine, many never to return.

Economics, Racism and Xenophobia

Prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine struggled to keep its best and brightest¹⁰. Modern Ukrainians were already leaving for better economic opportunity. Although racism and xenophobia isn’t as open today as in the past, modern Ukrainians face many of the same challenges as 1800’s Irish migrants. Ironically, if Ukraine had become a member of the EU prior to invasion, many would have left on their own, similar to Polish migrants¹¹.

So what is ahead for these migrants? I have no doubt that once the initial outcry of support wears off that European nations will struggle to accommodate so many people. Europe was already struggling with a migration crisis, only from American wars in the Middle East¹². Regardless of your politics, accommodating another 10 to 20 million people will be challenging.

What can be done?

At this point, it is wildly optimistic to believe that most refugees will return home. Some cities in Ukraine have been completely destroyed. Mariupol was home to almost a half million people prior to the war¹³. Russia annihilated the city, forcing most of its resident to permanently flee. Even if the war stopped today, rebuilding and resettling the millions of refugees would take years to decades.

Politically it will be extremely unpopular to loosen immigrant laws. This is true in the US and in the EU. Many European voters are already fatigued with newcomers from Africa and the Middle East. While many American voters feel the same about Latin American newcomers. And good luck to any politician bold enough to propose an exemption for only Ukrainians.

Going forward, voters and politicians must realize the scale of this crisis and act accordingly. Given the state of the corporate media, the chance of anything factual or balanced is extremely unlikely. So don’t look to government to solve a problem they were partially responsible for creating (see blogs below for details). Instead, you should personally help these people. Once the news cycle changes to the next outrage of the day, these people will remain homeless. Just like Syrian refugees, these needs of these people will be quickly forgotten.

Conclusion

Ukraine faces the double whammy of lack of economic opportunity and war. This toxic combination will permanently push millions of migrants out of the country. History has numerous examples of mass migrations. Some, like the Irish, have done so well in their new homes that return is unthinkable. Others, like the Romani, continue to struggle and endure cultural ostracism. Of these two options, I suspect the Ukrainian mass migration will look more like the Irish migrations.

Whatever the outcome, the millions displaced by war are the true cost of war. Rarely do Americans see these costs. Think about this the next time the media beats the war drums for an intervention or regime change. Middle Eastern refugees are no less of an issue than the Ukrainian refugees. But don’t ever expect the corporate media to attribute their plight to America’s foreign policy.