With time, money and equipment running out for the Zelenskyy regime, the Ukrainian military launched a massive counter offensive. In a last ditch effort to repel the Russians, waves of armored vehicles, tanks and infantry rushed across the open steppe towards Kherson. Despite an overwhelming advantage in man power, Russian defenders easily crushed the offensive1.
Planning for the offensive was the worst kept secret on the planet. In my previous blog on Ukraine, I incorrectly assumed the leaked information was a ruse to trick the Russians into keeping troops in Southern Ukraine to defend against the coming offense. Apparently I gave the Ukrainian top brass too much credit. Instead of forcing the Russians to advance, Ukraine foolishly attacked in wide-open fields against an enemy with complete air, surveillance, and artillery superiority. If the videos of ambulances rushing to hospitals in Odesa and Kiev are any indicator, the result was a blood bath on a scale not seen since WWI2.
Not All is Lost
Armed with hundreds of modern Polish Leopard tanks, the southern offensive was doomed before it ever started3. However, Ukraine also launched an offensive in the East, near the Russian held town of Izyum. Taking the defenders by surprise, Ukrainian forces pushed deep into Russian lines. Headlines quickly circulated of the Russian defeat4. Meanwhile, Putin and the Russian military hosted the massive Vostok war games with China and India5.
Although the retreating Russians didn’t lose any major towns or cities, the successful offensive showed the world that Ukraine can win small battles. And it was a huge political success. Finally, Ukraine has something positive to show their American and European backers. Further, Putin came under heavy criticism for not adequately re-enforcing positions6. Some even question whether Putin has the gumption to fully mobilize his military to strike a decisive blow7.
Why Hasn’t Russia Mobilized?
And that brings up a good question: why hasn’t Russia mobilized? Even before the war began, it was obvious to me that a war in Ukraine would be between Russia and NATO. And if I were in Putin’s shoes, I would have mobilized long ago. Instead, Russia fights with a fraction of its military and relies heavily on militia groups8. Even the Third Army Corps, a newly formed army, is made up of volunteers with barely enough training to use their equipment9. The military is in the process of deploying them in Donetsk, but they probably wouldn’t be enough to turn the tide in the east.
As for why, I don’t have any good answers. Maybe Putin fears his people will resist full mobilization. Maybe their economy is too fragile to support a full scale war. And maybe Putin and his top brass were too arrogant in their ability to fight this war. Whatever the cause, if Russia doesn’t get serious, Ukraine will eventually prevail. America continue to deplete its inventories, but appears willing to continue the war with more and more aid packages10.
Current State of Affairs
Currently, the war rages on on. In the south, Ukraine completely failed to do anything other than hurt themselves. Russia was ready for their counter attack. Thousands of Ukrainian troops were either killed or injured in the process; a complete and total waste of lives and hardware. Citizens rushed to give blood as hospitals overflowed with wounded11. I feel strongly that Ukraine must do everything it can to survive in the south, but an offensive across open land without air cover is just stupid. Instead, Ukraine should fortify its defensive positions and force the Russians to move first.
Further, the loses were so bad for Ukraine that they declared a day mourning12. Some even rumored that Russia set a trap, which forced Ukrainian troops to retreat through their own minefields. Both sides have been able to hijack drones, but it appears that the offensive near Kherson was especially damaged when Russia neutralized their drones13. Unwilling to forfeit more lives, eventually Zelenskyy ordered the offensive to stop.
But as bad as it went in the south, it’s gone equally as well in the east. Russian lines have collapsed, especially near Kharkiv14. Troops across the front between Izyum and Kharkiv advanced 50km into previously held Russian territory. However, unlike Ukrainian defenders, the Russians appear to have strategically retreated. This avoided large POW captures, and is the only reason this wasn’t a complete disaster for Putin.
Other Events
Outside of the military struggle, the war continues to be an economic struggle too. Gazprom, the Russian state oil company, recently shutdown the Nord Stream pipeline15. This pipeline is the primary source of natural gas for Germany and northern Europe. Gas prices will eventually derail the European economy, as is evident by the recent shutdown of Germany factories16.
And you would think this would hurt Russia too, but China and India have filled the void. Amazingly, China is now a large exporter of LGN to Europe, mostly using gas import from Russia17. It is expected to get so bad in Europe that Germany may deploy its military to avoid social unrest18. And the only solution the EU came up with is price caps, which will surely result in further shortages19.
In addition to economic war, both sides threaten assassinations. Ukrainian special forces murdered Darya Dugan, the daughter of a prominent Putin ally20. The car bomb attack occurred just outside Moscow, which definitively shows that nobody is outside the reach of this war. Even Putin needs to watch his back. The West has said from the beginning that they want regime change, despite the risk of a worse replacement. The Russians, on the only hand, have also targeted top government officials, including Zelenskyy21.
Conclusion
The war in Ukraine is evil and dumb. Unfortunately, it continues to deepen and escalate. Instead of mobilizing and ending the war quickly, Russia has taken a hands-off approach to fighting NATO and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Europe refuses to send troops or ramp up production of arms. This leaves a conflict between part of Russia’s military against a beaten and worn out conscript army with American equipment. The Ukrainian people are extremely resilient and show no sign of defeat. However, besides a small victory, they have nothing to show for this conflict.
Will Russia send in their air force? Is Putin willing to send more of his professional army? And can Ukraine survive the winter while their allies in Europe suffer without gas? I’ve argued that time is against both sides, but especially the Russians. Hopefully for Ukraine the failed offensive in the south will delay the likely Russian offensive towards Odesa. And hopefully for Ukraine they can better defend their recent gains in the east when Putin returns with more troops. Ultimately, I would like to see a political solution, but that seems even more implausible now that ever.
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