Ukraine Braces for Pending Russian Onslaught

The war in Ukraine has entered the calm before the storm. After months of Ukrainian victories, Russia continues to plan and prepare for the next phase of the conflict. Reinforcements arrive daily on the Russian lines, while a quarter million men await deployment to the battlefield. This includes a massive mobilization of tanks, artillery, missiles, aircrafts, and winter provisions.

In many regards, this quiet period is similar to the Phoney War, which culminated in the devastating defeat of France by the Third Reich¹. Between the defeat of Poland and invasion of France, Germany prepared a colossal invasion force during an eight month period known as The Phoney War. Russians forces are much smaller (half million) when compared to the German invasion (3 million), but this is due mostly to the difference in modern warfare which doesn’t require as much human power.

Like the Germans, the Russians are planning for a decisive invasion. France fell after only 6 weeks of fighting, which shocked the world and secured Hitler as the dominate force in Western Europe. Up until recently, the Ukrainians had large numerical advantages. However, once their mobilization is complete, the Russians will have enough firepower and manpower to dictate the fighting. And similar to the fall of France, I believe the Russians will advance towards the capital city to seek an end to the conflict. So, what does the next phase of the war look like?

Where are we now?

To know where the war is heading, it is important to take stock of the current situation on the ground. Ukraine has done a remarkable job of holding off the Russians. They’ve shown an incredible will to fight and overcome severe losses. Their counteroffensive surprised the invaders around Kharkiv and wore them down near Kherson. Both were hamulating defeats for Putin, but neither were strategically important. However, the loss of Kherson effectively rules out an advance on Odesa, especially since the Russians sabotaged bridges and critical infrastructure during their retreat².

As for the capability of war, Ukraine is badly battered. Virtually all their original equipment has been demolished. They have no real air force or air defense systems. They’ve been using leftover soviet era tanks and equipment from their NATO allies, much of which has been demolished too. And their economy and civilian infrastructure are in ruins. On the bright side, America continues to sent vast quantities of supplies, including the infamous HIMARS mobile artillery.

For the Russians, however, they are in much better shape. So far, they have sustained minimal losses of equipment and men. The most notable loss occurred back in April with the sinking of the Moskva warship³. The Russian economy is stable, despite harsh sanctions, and is mobilizing to resupply the enormous amount of missiles, shells, and ammunition consumed on a daily basis⁴.

Intentions

Since the beginning of the war, Putin declared his intentions of securing access to Crimea, demilitarizing Ukraine, and denazifying Ukraine. For the most part, he has stuck to that plan. He reluctantly mobilized for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, and only after suffering two huge setbacks on the battlefield. Russian generals called for mobilization several months before Putin eventually agreed⁵. And until a month ago, the Russians were not targeting civilian infrastructure.

Everything changed, however, when the Ukrainians successfully counterattacked in Kharkiv. It became clear to the world that the Russians had bitten off more than their small deployment could defend. The Americans saw this weakness and helped the Ukrainians exploit it⁶. Now, the Russian have pulled back to positions that are easier to defend to buy time for their eventual winter offensive. And they started an extensive bombing campaign across the entire country, targeting critical power infrastructure⁷.

Unfortunately, the Zelenskyy regime is dead set on reclaiming all territory prior to the beginning of the conflict in 2014, including Crimea. As I’ve argued numerous times, his unwillingness to accept reality on the ground or to compromise is a major contributing factor to the continuation of this war. Further, he promises to never recognize Russian held territory, most of all Crimea. As a result, Ukraine intends to fight, likely until the bitter end. As long as the West continues to back the regime, Zelenskyy will fight. And there are no signs of America backing out, not even with a Republican House.

Allies

Both sides of the conflict have support from their allies. Ukraine’s largest backer, by far (about 60%), is the US⁸. America has enough economic and military might to support Ukraine on its own, but clearly every little bit helps. Unfortunately, the third largest supporter, the UK, cannot sustain its level of support. Suffering from historic inflation and record high taxation, the UK is looking at massive spending cuts, including its support of Ukraine⁹. With recession spreading in Europe, I would wager other nations will also pull back support over time.

Signaling their intentions to stay, the Biden regime continues to expand its role in the war. As I anticipated back in March, the Pentagon recently admitted that special forces have boots on the ground in Ukraine¹⁰. Similar to the ‘observers’ in Vietnam, these troops are called ‘weapons inspectors’. Who knows, maybe some of them are inspecting weapons, but I have no doubt that’s a secondary role. And just in case Ukraine falls, the US stationed 4,000 troops (101st Airborne) in Romania, just across the border from Ukraine¹¹. It’s a small force, but it shows Putin that NATO nations are off limits.

Axis

Russian support is mainly through trade. And here China and India directly prop up the war machine by buying all the oil and gas that used to go to Europe¹². In the process, Europe prices itself out of energy intensive industries while industry in China and India booms with a flood of cheap energy¹³.

Additional, both Tukey and Saudi Arabia, rejected Western calls for sanctions. The leaders of these nations openly mocked Biden and have strengthened their ties with China and Russia¹⁴. In one last attempt to sell gas to Europe, Putin and Erdogan recently agreed to double gas exports to Turkey¹⁵. Despite having the largest military in NATO (besides the US), Turkey is clearly moving closer to the Russians. This includes strengthening political, economic, and security relationships. The agreement to build a second TurkStream gas pipeline is a perfect example¹⁶.

The War Ahead

With everything in context, how will the war proceed? I am completely convinced that Putin wants an end to this war. He was happy with a limited ‘special operation’ to secure access to Crimea and Donbas. Since that is off the table, he will seek a Ukrainian surrender and recognition of occupied territories. Naturally, that will be difficult since Zelenskyy plans to fight until the bitter end. Putting those pieces together, it is clear to me that Russia’s only way out is a fall of the Zelenskyy regime.

For Ukraine, it is impossible to remove Russia from Donbas and Crimea without deeper intervention from NATO. Since that is their stated goal, there is no path to victory without a world war against Russia. Even if Putin is killed or replaced, I simply can’t imagine a replacement leader that would voluntarily cede control over Crimea. It’s just too important for the Russian Federation. Zelenskyy will try every trick in the book to get broader involvement, but I don’t see it working. However, as the recent stray missile that killed two in Poland shows, he is willing to try¹⁷.

How does it end?

So, the question becomes: How can Russia force a Ukrainian surrender? I originally though Odesa was their most probable destination, but that seems unlikely after Russian forces retreated from Kherson. This leaves only three real possible outcomes: 1) Kiev falls, 2) the Russian military completely destroys the Ukraine war machine, or 3) a Russian friendly coup replaces Zelenskyy. In all three scenarios, the battles to come will dwarf the death and destruction seen thus far. When it is all said and done, the nation of Ukraine will be throughout annihilated.

Of the three outcomes, a coup seems the least likely. History shows us that coups happen, but they require the backing of the military. Since the military is propped up by the West, I just don’t see any scenario where a coup works without being triggering by one of the other outcomes. A successful coup is only realistically possible if the US backs out of the war. Unless Trump wins in 2024, there is no way the US backs out. I believe the war will be over before 2024 and I also believe the Deep State will never allow another Trump victory. Therefore, I can safely rule out a coup.

Military Victory

Of the remaining scenarios, both require a throughout defeat on the battle field. Putin tried surrounding Kiev in the early days of the war, but he clearly did NOT want to ruin the city. It almost resulted in a peace deal back in March¹⁸, but it ultimately failed when Boris Johnson pressured Zelenskyy to pull out of peace talks¹⁹. I still believe Putin opposes an attack on Kiev, but it may be his only way out.

Whatever ultimately occurs depends on how the two sides fight. The first and obvious objective will be the destruction of the Ukraine army east of the Dnieper River. In total, Ukraine has almost a million men and women in its army²⁰. It is unclear how many are east of the Dnieper, but I think it is safe to assume at least a couple of hundred thousand.

To defeat an army of that size, Russia needs to take out supply lines and routes of retreat. That means blowing up all of the bridges across the Dnieper. Not only will this trap the military, but it will also trap the millions of civilians still residing in places like Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. In a previous blog about the humanitarian crisis, I projected millions of refugees. However, the humanitarian disaster that awaits will be much worse than I ever anticipated. Sadly, an even larger crises looms if/when the Russians attack Kiev. Oddly, the Russians have avoided destroying the bridges, but I expect that to change when their offensive begins.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine is disaster however you look at it. I blame Western policy makers for triggering this war. It is a tragic result and failure of great power politics. Unfortunately, the only realistic way to end the war is through further fighting. This means enormous death tolls for both sides, especially the outgunned Ukrainians. I fully expect the Russians to go on the offensive and likely within the next month or two. They will continue to consolidate in Donbas and probably advanced towards Dnieper River.

Even if Kiev is their ultimate target (which I believe it is), they must control the land east of the river first. Before attacking such a large and well defended city, they would need to shorten their supply lines. There is no way they’ll repeat the 40-mile traffic jam. Ironically, if the noble Ukrainian defenders pull out a miracle and stop the Russians before reaching Kiev, it will only result in further mobilizations. As Obama said, Russia has ‘escalation dominance’²¹. Regardless of how well Ukraine defends, Russia can always call up more manpower.

So, these dreadful prospects await the people trapped in Ukraine. Short of a coup or military collapse (on either side), this pointless war will surely enter its most deadly phase. The war will leave millions homeless and/or dead. Where families used to play, nothing but rubble will remain. Now is the time for Ukrainian citizens to evacuate while most roads and bridges remain operational. This is especially true for those east of the Dnieper. And until there is a decisive victory, I fully expect the war and wartime atrocities to intensify.