Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come1. This is as true in the long march of history as it is with technology. Some notable examples are: light bulbs replaced candles, typewriters replaced writing by hand, and cars replaced horse-and-buggies.
There are so many examples of new technologies that people take for granted that the next big thing is just around the corner. Oddly, this doesn’t stop some from incorrectly asserting, “everything that can be invented, has been invented.”2 Not only is this sentiment wrong, it is absurdly counterfactual. The pace of technological changes has accelerated for centuries, and there is nothing on the horizon to indicate a slowdown.
Computers
Computers changed everything, literally everything. There isn’t a single industry, process, or activity that escaped from the influence of computers. During my lifetime, computers went from massive cabinet sized machines to something smaller than a watch. As computers shrank, they became exponentially more powerful. Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, expertly predicted this trend. In 1965, he predicted the number of transistors on a microchip would double every two years3.
Computers are so important now that banks covet computer programmers even more than bankers4. And like technology in general, the pace of change only accelerates. Watch how a two year-old manipulates a smartphone for evidence of how we are never going back to the way things used to be.
Computer Human Interface
Looking towards the future, computers will continue to change our world. Specifically, technology will eventually merge computers and people. Once microchips are part of our bodies, it will be difficult to imagine what life was like before. Just like millennials struggle to imagine life prior to the internet.
Naturally, predicting the future is difficult. Not long ago, some predicted Artificial Intelligence (AI) would take over the world by now, similar to the Terminator movies5. In hindsight, those predictions look premature to downright foolish. AI is an effective technology, but popular culture greatly misunderstand its potential. Like any emerging field, scientists will improve AI and find creative uses for it. However, AI poses no foreseeable danger in the form of super intelligent killing machines.
Transhumanism
Where the predictions of AI fall short, transhumanism will fill the void. The merger between man and machine will absolutely occur. It is only a matter of time. The technology already exists for people to control prosthetic limbs by thinking. It’s called Neuroprosthetics6. As of now, the technology resides mostly within laboratories.
It doesn’t take a vivid imagination to think about embedding computers into the brain to accomplish all sorts of goals. This field of study is known as Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI). The underlying technologies will significantly advance over the next several decades. But technology will not be the primary barrier. Economics will be.
Startups
For the technology to truly advance, it must reach mass market and economies of scale. In order to reach the masses, companies need to find practical applications that people will happily pay for. And that’s were startups come in7. Startups are developing the first wave of BCI products now.
The two basic approaches are wearables and implants. Both have issues. Wearables have limited interaction with the brain, while implants involve risky, invasive surgery. With time, I expect both to improve by leaps and bounds. Wearable are already cheap (around $500), so the real advancements will come in the form of usefulness. Implants, on the other hand, are expensive and require brain surgery. Right now, only severely paralyzed people consider this a viable option.
However, with further innovations, the techniques for implanting chips and/or sensors into the brain will greatly improve. There is research underway to embed electrodes via the bloodstream, instead of cutting open the skull8. Whatever solutions emerge, I am positive that better and better BCI products will hit the market. The economics are too compelling.
Economics
Most BCI companies today focus on either wearable gadgets for novelty applications (like games) or implantables for the disabled. But the ultimate prize is a seamless interface between man and machine. For this technology, the rewards will be overwhelming. If it existed today, people could easily justify spending over a million dollars for the interface. Why? Because there would be enormous productivity gains from such an interface. A person’s earning potential would easily double or triple, maybe even advanced by 10-to-1.
Since most people work on computers now, it shouldn’t be hard to see why working directly with a computer would increase productivity. For instance, a good typing speed is 70 words per minute9. People read at several times that rate and think even faster. By removing the keyboard, a seamless BCI could improve a writer’s productivity by at least 4 to 5 times, likely more. Likely lots more. Instead of worrying about spelling and grammar, an advanced BCI would always spell words correctly and fix grammar issues in real time.
And writing is the tip of the iceberg. There are thousands of different careers and occupations that would benefit from BCIs. These economic rewards will drive innovation. So will militaries and governments (but I repeat myself). Sadly, with any technology, there are potential pitfalls.
Government Strikes Back
One of the absolutely horrifying pitfalls is the idea of writable computer implants. Most people think of autonomous humans controlling the computer, just with infinite memory and exceptional processing speeds. However, there is no reason to think that the technology would be unidirectional. Instead, it is almost certain that these computers will be to control and/or override the mind. And just think about the power governments would have with the ability to directly inject thoughts into your brain.
I shutter to think about the consequences. Further, there is no reason to think this technology would be limited to humans. Why not implant animals with mind-control computers? Computers could control everything from insects to large mammals, and likely without as much ethical pushback. Do you think anybody could realistically stop governments from experimenting on rats or bugs?
Sadly, governments are very interested in BCI technology. The Department of Defense has already begun research in the field10. I have zero doubt that government money will pour into the field. They’ll dream up all sorts of justifications, but honestly who thinks it is a good idea for the government to possess mind control technology?
Ethics
The technology raises many ethical questions as well. Let’s start with some of the craziest claims. Some people claim BCI will be a great equalizer. They say the brain will be overpowered by the computer, so differences in IQ and knowledge will melt away. That’s the claim at least. But that ignores reality and all other technologies that came before it. If anything, I think BCI will widen the gap between the very bright and everybody else, similar to computers now. Most of the benefits will likely go to those that are already smarter than the masses.
Others claim BCI will not be fair. The rich will get richer and the poor will be left behind. Therefore, the technology should be outlawed. In this case, their claims hold more gravity. As an elective surgery, only the wealthiest will be able to afford comprehensive BCI implants, especially in the early stages of the technology curve. However, even in late stages of mass adoption, extremely poor people will never be able to afford these implants. But the idea of outlawing or regulating due to inequality is simply ridiculous. Besides, if you own your body, then it is your choice whether to enhance your brain or not.
Metaphysical
On the metaphysical side, the ethical concerns are very troubling. How will BCI alter human behavior? If a person can choose their mood or disposition, then interactions between people will drastically change. Smart phones already adversely affect how people interact with one another. BCI has the potential to completely dehumanize society, which already struggles with current technologies. I think for this reason alone, society should mistrust and avoid this technology.
Once a generation is raised on BCI, it will transform the essence of what it means to be human. People without the wealth to enhance themselves, will be looked down upon as a separate class of unworthy primitives. Worse, it has the potential to permanently stratify classes of people. Traditionalist and luddites will surely resist this inevitable technology. As adoption becomes widespread, these people will become outcasts and will struggle to compete against the augmented. People may have to choose between a life of poverty and shame or change the very nature of who they are.
Conclusion
The future is an interesting thing to consider, especially with regards to technology that could redefine mankind. Maybe BCI will never reach this conclusion. Maybe there are physical limitations that confine the technology to niche applications. It is also possible that people reject the technology. BCI may be too radical and life altering for mass adoption.
Whatever occurs, I am sure that economic forces will drive innovation in the field for decades to come. My best guess is that it will eventually reach the mass market. For me, the real question is what form will it take and how will humanity change as a result. Let’s hope the technology can be turned off and that people are fully autonomous in regards to the information pushed to their brains.
It is my concern that mankind will lose its way with this terribly invasive technology. By chasing the almighty dollar, people will lose the true understanding of what it means to be human and live peacefully with our God-given limitations. Let’s all hope I am wrong and we do our best to avoid this dreadful outcome.
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