After suffering a humiliating defeat in the Kharkiv region, Russia announced a major escalation in the war. Along with mobilizing 300,000 troops, Putin officially annexed the four regions occupied since the invasion began. So, how did the West respond to this new threat? They started a propaganda campaign about nuclear brinkmanship and sabotaged the Nord Stream pipelines1 (more on that later).
With the political consequences reaching new, frightening heights, the war on the ground cooled off. Ukrainian advances fizzled out after suffering horrendous losses2. With both sides effectively stalled, fighting remains intense in various spots throughout the Donbas, but overall gains are limited. Unfortunately, instead of looking for political solutions, both sides prepare for a long and bloody winter.
How Serious Are They?
War is a test: it is a test of strategy, a test of organization, and a test of brute force. But more importantly, war is a test of how much people are willing to sacrifice in order to win. In my previous blog, I questioned whether the Russians were serious. Up until recently, they appeared unwilling to dedicate enough men and machines to resolve this conflict. Now, we have the answer, and unfortunately for Ukraine, Putin is indeed serious.
With the approach of a cold winter3, Putin announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 additional troops4. These troops are reservists, so unlike the newly formed 3rd [volunteer] army, they have previous military experience. I expect many of them to arrive on the battlefield before year end. Others will likely be stationed at home to free-up professional soldiers. Either way, the new forces will nearly triple their fighting forces in Ukraine.
Civilians at Risk
Despite media reports of atrocities, Russia’s attacks so far have been fairly constrained, especially when compared to other wars. Civilian life in Ukraine outside of the warzone is mostly normal. However, Russia recently attacked power and water infrastructure in Kharkiv5. Was this a one-off attack, or has Russia begun a new phase of attacks against civilians? Will the Russians firebomb Kiev, like the British did to Dresden6?
I hope not, but they have more than enough airpower to do so. The media likes to talk up nuclear weapons, but far more people died in WWII from conventional weapons. More Japanese died from the firebombing of Tokyo than from the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima7. Personally, I don’t think Putin will resort to the mass killing of civilians. However, it is a possibility and something the West should consider when formulating a response to the current round of escalations.
How Serious is the West?
From the very beginning of the conflict, I’ve questioned NATO’s resolve, especially the European members. Support from the USA is only thing keeping the Ukrainian economy and military afloat8. But why should the USA shoulder this burden? Doesn’t Europe have a vested interest in stopping the Russians?
In a previous blog, I incorrectly stated that Ukraine was using modern Leopard tanks. Poland has donated tanks to Ukraine, but they are old Soviet Era tanks9. But why hold back? Of course, the same question applies to all of Europe. Where are the tanks? Where are the planes? What about sending ground troops or blockading the Black Sea? Europe has plenty of ways to do more, much more, but they remain inactive.
What About Germany?
Germany is Europe’s biggest economy and traditionally competed with Russia for dominance in Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, their economy is deeply dependent on Russian natural gas and oil. Worse, their military faces the same problems that Japan’s does. They are completely at the mercy of the US for security and is in no position to fight an all out war against Russia.
German energy policies of the past several decades have effectively rendered them useless in this conflict. By closing nuclear and coal power plants, their industries ran on wind and natural gas, but mostly on natural gas10. Now its economy is melting down11. It is only a matter of time before Germany pushes for peace in Ukraine and pleads with Russia to reopen trade.
Nord Stream
At this point, that may be impossible. Not only it is unlikely that Russia would be willing to send gas to Germany, both Nord Stream pipelines were recently sabotaged12. If you’ve been following my blog, then you are well aware that they weren’t online to begin with. However, their sabotage sends a clear message to Germany: Russia is the enemy and doing business with them is verboten.
I have no proof that the West sabotaged Nord Stream pipelines, but it is the only thing that remotely makes sense. I believe it was purposely done to tell the Germans there is no going back to doing business with Russia. Similar to the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power, both sides blamed one another. But why in the world would Russia destroy its own infrastructure? They already controlled the flow of gas. Destroying the pipelines buys them nothing. On the other hand, if the West is willing to destroy the pipelines, then Germany has no reason to negotiate a peace. Finally, the US was against these pipelines from their inception13.
Looking Forward
I’ve argued that time was of the essence for both sides. The longer the war grinds on, the harder it will be for Ukraine to keep the West involved and the larger the costs will be. For Russia, I thought they would try to deliver a strategic blow either in Kiev or Odesa before winter. As it turned out, Russia didn’t have nearly enough ground forces to launch an offensive, yet alone defend against the massive Ukrainian counteroffensive. Now, the war is at a stalemate, at least for the time being.
With hundreds of thousands of new troops on the way, the Russian military will likely begin an offensive before the end of the year. This signals that fighting will intensify over the winter. Further, instead of relying on local militia for infantry, professional Russian soldiers will perform the majority of fighting. As for their target, I still expect them to strike a decisive blow to Ukraine. The most likely target is Odesa.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin seeks revenge for losing the Kharkiv region. If so, that shows the Russians are more concerned with proving a point than actually ending this senseless war. Odesa is the last major Ukrainian port, and securing access the Black Sea is an obvious military objective. While Kharkiv has little strategic value. Either way, more death and destruction is on the way. And with it, the lose of more innocent lives.
Conclusion
As I anticipated, a war in Ukraine would be a battle between NATO and Russia. Instead of invading with his full military, Putin has played a political game against the West. His moves seem foolish on the battlefield, but he has kept those against the West on his side. I have no doubt that Putin received their unofficial approval to expand the war during the most recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization14.
The addition of 300,000 troops should be enough to end the war. Ukraine was already on the verge of collapse, and has no way to endure such a formidable force. Putin upped the ante, now it is time for the West to respond. NATO risks a serious loss in stature and credibility if nothing further is done. However, if NATO responds, it risks further escalation by Russia. I’ve felt for a long time that a political solution is the only realistic way out, but neither side seems interested in this.
Sadly, Ukraine missed out on the perfect timing to negotiate after their successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv. With mobilization underway, the war will only end when one sides surrenders. And as long as Ukraine has more men and materials, it is extremely unlikely they will surrender unless forced on the battlefield. I predict a brutal and bloody winter awaits Ukrainians caught in the middle of this clash of civilizations.
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