How Should the West Respond to the War in Ukraine?

After a little more than two weeks of fighting, the war in Ukraine is taking shape. The Russians are concentrating on two major offensives: 1) link Crimea with forces in the Donbas region, and 2) encircle Kiev. The fighting in southern Ukraine is intense, especially in the port city of Mariupol¹. Despite strong resistance, the Russian onslaught continues to advance. The battle for Kiev, however, is vastly different. Fierce resistance and terrible logistics plague the Russian advance. This includes the infamous 40-mile tank traffic jam².

My previous blog posts focus primary on Russia, since there is so much misunderstand in the media. However, it is just as important to decipher Western strategy. How should the West respond? What role should the US play? What about the numerous small republics adjacent to Ukraine and Russia? Clearly, they have a vested interest in the outcome of this war.

War Comes in Many Varieties

Western media pushes the narrative that the West isn’t doing enough. But before exploring that, I want to make it clear that the West is already heavily involved. Prior to the invasion, the US and NATO shipped over $200 million worth of anti-armor missiles, ammunition, and other equipment³. It is impossible to know whether these shipments provoked Putin, but arming one side of a conflict is clearly an act of war.

It is also very interesting to contrast shipping arms to a war zone versus humanitarian supplies. The US knew for months that a full scale Russian invasion was imminent⁴. But instead of sending $200 million of medical supplies, food, and clothing, the US sent weapons.

No doubt Russia is guilty for the lose of life in Ukraine. However, the US did virtually nothing to help the civilians caught in the crossfire. In fact, it is likely that the West wants as many civilians trapped in Ukraine as possible to slow the Russian advance⁵. Cynically, trapped women, children and elderly fill the nightly news with horror stories⁶.

Economic War

Western sanctions are another act of war against Russia. Sanctions sound benign, but are in fact an act of aggression. The worst part of sanctions is their disproportional damage to ordinary Russians⁷. Common Russian citizens are just as innocent in this war as Americans are with Iraq. Maybe more so since they live under an autocratic regime.

In addition to these acts, the US sends Ukraine vital intelligence information. Recently, the Biden administration altered the rules to help expediate sharing information⁸.

As for physical support, I have no doubt that special forces are already on the ground in Ukraine. There is mounting evidence of “unofficial” involvement, wrapped with the typical NGO, humanitarian banner⁹.

Looking Forward

So what should the US and its Western allies do? To this point, no government is willing to directly confront Russia and her nuclear arsenal. And thank God for their constraint. As bad as the war is, Ukraine isn’t worth risking further escalation with Russia. Whatever path the West chooses, it must do everything in its power to avoid nuclear war. This is especially true with Russia’s nuclear forces on standby¹⁰.

The obvious low hanging fruit is helping civilians obtain food, supplies and shelter. With over 40 million people, anything that you can personally contribute will help. If you haven’t already done so, please consider donating towards humanitarian relief. Further, encourage your government to send aid and not in the form of missiles or bullets!

Western Goals

Unfortunately, foreign policy goals and humanitarian goals do not align. It is in the West’s interests for the war in Ukraine to drag on for as long as possible. The ideal outcome for Western governments is a long, bloody stalemate that results in regime change in Moscow. Even though somebody worse than Putin may emerge, America clearly wants regime change in Russia¹¹.

Despite Russia’s slow advance, they still maintain an enormous numerical and military advantage. With only two weeks of supplies (like food), it is only a matter of time before Kiev falls or negotiates a ceasefire¹². So how can the West prolong the war without risking nuclear war?

Asymmetric War

Even if Kiev falls, Russia still has a long way to go before the Ukrainian people surrender. Specifically, Ukraine has numerous militia groups, including far-right, nationalist groups¹³. Some call these groups neo-Nazi groups. But don’t be fooled by labels, these groups are well organized and strongly anti-Russian. And they are the perfect match for the US to fight an asymmetric war against Russia.

America and NATO should work on the assumption that the Ukrainian government will fall. While the official military stands, it is sensible to continue sending arms. And in the background, I expect the US to arm and train paramilitary groups. The West should send these groups as much guns, ammo, RPGs, grenade launchers, body armor and helmets as possible. These weapons are cheap, easy to use (just watch YouTube), and will entangle Russia for years to come.

Perpetual War

Sadly, an insurgency war will turn most of Ukraine into a perpetual war zone. The Donbas region has experienced 8 years of conflict and lost an estimated 14,000 people. Expect these numbers to sky rocket this year, on both sides of the conflict. It would be criminal to arm these groups with out also sending significant humanitarian aid, so let’s help governments around the world send aid too.

The main risk to this strategy is if the Russians decide to use their own asymmetric tactics. With complete control over the skies of Ukraine, the Russian air force could bomb major cities into oblivion. America used this exact tactic against Tokyo in March of 1945, which resulted in the death of nearly 100,000 people¹⁴. Even though I doubt the Russian would go down that path, it is a possibility. And if Russian causalities are too high, I expect some form of massive retaliation.

Conclusion

The war in Ukraine rages on. Russia is a determined invader and the Ukrainian people are courageous defenders of their land. But I don’t expect the battle for Kiev to resemble the Battle of Stalingrad, as some have suggested¹⁵. Modern people are not cut out for such enormous loses and personal sacrifices. I see a fairly quick fight (weeks, possibly months), followed by the surrender of Kiev. However, instead of a resounding victory, the fall of the Zelenskyy regime will only mark the beginning of the resistance.

NATO and America will assuredly arm rebel militia groups. I suspect American special forces are already in Ukraine. If not, they will be there soon, embedded in NGOs, militia groups, and rescue efforts. These advisors will continue the resistance after the fall of Kiev. Anybody hoping for a quick resolution will be greatly disappointed. The only real way to avoid this outcome is if Zelenskyy negotiates a ceasefire that pleases the Russians, but that seems highly unlikely at this point.

Crazy Talk

Other options like no-fly zones or boots on the ground are pie-in-the-sky, crazy talk. Nobody on either side seriously wants to expand the war into a direct confrontation between America and Russia. Let’s all hope politicians limit their rhetoric and keep this war from spiraling out of control. At this point, an insurgency backed by the West is the best outcome for America. Sadly, that will prolong the suffering of Ukrainian people, but is the only realistic option other than defeat or full scale escalation.

Finally, neighboring countries would do best to focus on humanitarian support. As tempting as it is to join military forces, the reality is that Ukraine has adequate military backing from NATO and the US. Helping innocent civilians is in much great need then arms, and these countries are ideally positioned to help with the humanitarian crisis.

Concordia

In the book, Concordia, There Must be a Better Way, a team of dedicated pioneers establishes a new nation. Without the backing of a superpower, this nation must establish a military that can defend the country on a shoestring budget.

Much like the battle in Ukraine, the military designs a strategy around insurgent forces. Sadly, the military is pushed to the brink only a couple of years in existence.

To found out what happens, buy the book on Amazon. It is an exciting novel that challenges your assumptions and entertains you in the process.

Support my blog with the purchase of one of these excellent books. I get a tiny commission for each purchase, but only if you purchase using one the links below.