Americans are obsessed with guns. There are more guns in America than there are people1. In most states, it is much easier to legally buy a gun than to obtain a driver license. And Hollywood mass produces movies with death defying, gun-wielding heroes and heroines.
This obsession with guns originated long before the founding of the nation. The 2nd Amendment didn’t create the gun culture (as some claim), but reflected the founding generation’s belief that freedom and private gun ownership are inseparable2. Beyond the founders, subsequent generations added their own myths and tales that glorified guns. From pioneers settling the wild frontier to WWII veterans wielding M1 rifles, the gun culture has only deepened with time.
What about gun violence?
Given the scale of America’s gun ownership, it is no surprise that America has a high rate of gun violence3. Total gun deaths per year is eight times higher than Russia and twelve times greater than China. And America is off the charts compared to other Western nations4. Nations with comparable rates of gun deaths are poor with lots of gang violence.
In 2020, 45k people died from firearms5. Over half of these (54%) were suicides. Although tragic, these deaths were victimless, since presumably they intended to kill themselves. Excluding accidents and self-defense, the remaining 43%, or 19k deaths, were homicides. This is an average of 50 murders per day, which is astronomical for a developed country.
Media Coverage
Gun violence is so common that in most metro areas any specific murder is barely news worthy. This is why on any given day, most people are unaware of the violence across the country. Of course, we are extremely familiar with the flood of media coverage for certain events, but the overwhelming majority of murders don’t fit the formula required for media coverage. In other words, most gun related murders aren’t profitable enough to cover.
Unfortunately, there are two classes of shootings that are wildly profitable: mass shootings and white cops killing blacks. When either of these occur, the media has the predictable deluge of coverage for weeks on end. Typically these correspond with either an election or a pending gun regulation bill. In either case, these deaths accounts for a statistically insignificant portion of overall murders. According to the FBI’s definition of ‘active’ shooters, there were 38 deaths in 2020, or 0.2% of the overall deaths5.
What Causes so many Murders?
Without getting too hung up on numbers, the overwhelming majority of murders occur in cities. Chicago accounts for 5% of all gun murders. Just 3 cities, Chicago, New York, and L.A., combine for a massive 13%. One in four murders occur in the top 7 cities6. Granted, these cities have more people, but they are disproportionally violent. And within these deadly cities, the majority of violence concentrates in specific neighborhoods.
Most people don’t want to hear this, but it is true. Poor, inner-city, predominately black neighborhoods dominate America’s gun violence. Young black males are 22 times more likely to be shot and killed than young white males7. Statistics don’t lie, even if the media actively avoids and hides this inconvenient truth. The table below illustrates the stark contrast of murder rates by races and age.
Gangs, Drugs, and Poverty
So the real question is, why? Why is gun violence so prevalent in America’s poor, urban areas? Some say it’s the War on Drugs. Others say its gangs or racism. And naturally, bleeding hearts blame poverty. We’ll take a look at each of these, but the fact is none of these reasons are a silver-bullet.
Gangs
Territorial disputes between gangs is an obvious cause of violence. According to the FBI, the US has an astounding 33,000 gangs8. Gangs account for almost half of all violent crimes. However, gang violence only makes up roughly 13% of all homicides, so clearly America’s gun violence isn’t primarily attributed to gangs9.
I don’t entirely trust the 13% number, but even if it is off by a factor of 2 or 3, then it still wouldn’t account for a majority of homicides.
Drugs
The War on Drugs has been a total and complete failure. It does nothing to stop drug usage. And since the market is so enormous, drug dealers continue to push despite the potentially devastating consequences. Because of its absolutely absurd drug policies, America is the incarceration capital of the world. As a result, there are over two million Americans in jail10.
Only China (with a significantly higher population) is remotely close to the US in total prisoners. Even when adjusted for population, the US remains in first place for incarceration rates. It is a shameful record and counterproductive. By locking so many people in jail, it creates a destructive cycle of gang membership and crime.
It is hard to quantify exactly how much this leads to overall gun deaths, but I have no doubt it is a major factor. The overwhelming majority of prisoners will eventually get out of jail. When they do, it is extremely likely they will join a gang and continue criminal activities. A shocking 44% of released inmates are locked up again in less than a year from release11.
Poverty
Poverty has long been associated with crime, especially robbery. According the FBI, there are around 250,000 robberies per year in the US12. Not all of these were armed robberies. However, armed robbery is the most prevalent crime that leads to murder. And this is extremely important because criminal activities accounts for 25% of all firearm homicides.
Similar to linking incarceration to murder, it is impossible to know exactly how much is related to poverty. I suspect it is more an issue of hopelessness and lack of opportunity. Whatever the underlying motivations, it is clear that many criminals are willing to kill as part of their actions.
Disputes
The last major category is death from somebody directly known by the victim. This huge group makes up about half of all murders13. It includes domestic disputes, fights, brawls, and romantic triangles. These deaths are interesting because the victim knew the assailant(s), and in most cases for a long time. They got into an argument about money, who was sleeping with who, or some other dumb thing. And many times they were drunk or high on drugs.
Now that we have a full picture of what leads to gun deaths, let’s consider what, if anything, can be done to alleviate this senseless violence.
Gun Laws
Virtually anything done at the national level will be completely useless. Even if Congress outlawed all guns, it probably wouldn’t make a difference. The first reason is that there already so many guns in circulation. Creating stricter laws would perversely make these firearms more valuable. And other regulations will likely result in equally disappointing results. As the War on Drugs proves, any biting regulations will only incentivize black-market workarounds.
On the flipside, state and local laws are different. They have more flexibility to screen, educate, and monitor gun ownership. I’m extremely skeptical that regulations or laws will help, but I can understand why governments and voters will try to do something. The problem is politicians usually misinterpret issues and write laws that use brute force.
The only laws that make sense to me are ones that accept the fact that Americans will always own guns. It is a part of the culture that can’t be changed with wishful thinking or misguided laws. I think legislators would do well to focus on background checks and education. Most gun owners would benefit from education on how to properly use and safely store firearms. And I’m sure some lives would be saved by learning proper safety habits, but nowhere near enough fix the problem.
Drug Laws
If legislators really wanted to help, they would immediately end the War on Drugs. They would follow that up by pardoning anybody currently in prison on minor drug offenses. Instead of creating career criminals, drug laws should focus on rehabilitation, including working with local charities and faith-based organizations.
I have no doubt that smarter drug laws would stop the downward spiral trigger by mass incarceration. Without initial convections, many urban youths would have much better chances of staying clean. Also, better drug laws would cut down on gang profits and membership. This would inevitably cut down on violent crime, including homicides.
Gangland
Even if drug laws were improved, I’m sure gangs would find other ways to make money. The cultural rot and lack of opportunity in many American neighborhoods drive many young men to join gangs. Without addressing cultural rot, no amount of laws will solve this problem. The gang problem will never go away when 72% of black children are born into single mother households14.
Opportunity is the other issue. Back when the US was the world’s largest exporter, poor blacks could at least find decent paying factory jobs. Yes, the work was hard, but it was honest work that put food on the table. Now that most manufacturing jobs moved overseas, inner cities no longer offer jobs or opportunities for their poor masses.
I am a proponent of tariffs, especially when combined with the elimination of income taxes. But without some sort of industrial policy to restore jobs, urban America will always be violent, regardless of gun or drug laws.
Conclusion
It isn’t hard to diagnosis America’s gun issues. Unfortunately, the clowns that run corporate media and the Federal Government have no interest in actually addressing any of the real underlying problems. Instead of taking any of the sensible advice listed above, they focus on mass shootings and red-flag laws15. Neither of which will put a dent in murder rates.
For most causes of homicide, changes to gun laws won’t matter. Violent criminals will obtain guns even if illegal. After all, murder is already illegal and that doesn’t stop criminals now. Gang violence will also continue, regardless (or because) of laws / regulations. And even if guns didn’t exist, homicides of passion would continue (25% currently use other weapons like knives).
Our only chance is to end the War on Drugs and address the problems in our inner cities. We need to restore the culture of hard work and family values to urban blacks. If you care about life, then you should seriously consider these suggestions as the path forward.
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(I received this excellent reply from a doctor on my mailing list):
Dear Rudy, YES, those who want to kill will find a weapon to do so. 30% of murders in US are by stabbing with a knife. I lost one of my patients when her son smashed her skull with a hammer. There are instances where skulls were crushed with rocks. Yes, guns kill but one can buy illegal guns in every city. Cities with stiff gun control, Chicago, peak murder cities. Countries without gun control are not doing badly.
The issue is not guns but profound epidemic mental illness, loss of religion and disintegration of governmental institutions such as police. Yes, our education is not underscoring moral foundation and civic virtue but propagates obscene narratives of hate and racism. Loss of patriotism too, spit into the well from which you drink water, coincides with increase in racism and violence.