Fiscal Cliff
0 9 min 3 yrs

In a previous post, I discussed what the inevitable breakup of America would look like. In this post, however, I will take the opposite approach and discuss how to restructure government power to delay the breakup as long as possible. After all, when empires collapse, a new order must replace the old. Historically this corresponds with great wars and tremendous suffering.

Aside from avoiding pain, I am deeply patriotic and don’t want to see an end to this great country, especially not during my lifetime. America is the single greatest nation of all time. It was the first nation ever built upon the idea of a classless society, a society without kings and nobility. It is a place where anybody really could be the president, regardless of their ancestry1.

It is Time to Restructure

So what is so import about restructuring? Unless you’ve lived under a rock for the past 30 years, you’ve noticed that America is on an unsustainable path. Debt spirals out of control and discourse is at all time lows. If things don’t change and change quickly, then the interest on the national debt will eventually consume the entire budget2.

Of course, the government and both political parties know this all too well, yet choose to do nothing about it. All they are concerned about is winning the next election. As voters continue to put them in office, politicians are happy to sink the ship so long as they get their piece of the pie. If nothing is done, then eventually fiscal disaster will force their hand. Either way, enormous changes are in store for America. However, the quicker these changes come, the easier it will be to adjust.

What will restructuring look like?

There are three major changes that must occur if America wishes to remain solvent. These changes are: massive decentralization, massive cuts in military spending, and debt restructuring. Each plays a pivotal role and requires great sacrifice from the people.

Decentralization

In many ways, America is already a decentralized government, especially when compared to many European nations. However, over time, the federal government expanded into many areas that are the responsibility of the states, like education, healthcare, social security (in the generic sense) and welfare. The Tenth Amendment is all but forgotten3.

Put simply, the federal government doesn’t have the funds to offer these services and really shouldn’t perform them in the first place. Eventually states will take over the role of the Welfare State4. And with these changes, it is inevitable that massive cuts will occur, creating get hardships during the transition period.

Once complete, however, America will have a more efficient system to care for the poor. Instead of one-size-fits-all, each state will allocate money in accordance with their values, which is very similar to Europe. In fact, Europe has roughly double the population of American representing over 40 nations5. Even with as many problems as the EU has, it would be unthinkable for the EU to centralize welfare responsibilities. It is likely that America will ultimately be this way too.

Military Spending

Of all the items on America’s budget, military spending is the most out of control and massively misaligned for a nation effectively without enemies. America is so geographically isolated that it would be virtually impossible for another country to conquer it. To put into context, Seattle is over 5,000 miles away from Beijing and New York is almost 4,000 miles from Berlin. These vast distances effectively rule out any invasion via the sea.

So how big is America’s military spending? It is colossal. America spends more than China, India, Russia, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Australia — combined6. Combined! Second place is China, which the US roughly outspends four to one.

Since the invasion of Iraq, it is hard to see how this military spending actually helps the US. But whether the spending is militarily necessary or not, it is clearly unsustainable for a nation at [relative] peace. The average spending vs. GDP is around 2.5% globally7. At more than 1.2 trillion dollars per year, the US is almost three times the global average share of GDP8.

To normalize our spending, Congress would need to cut the budget by at least 60%. This would require a huge reallocation of priorities. On such a vastly reduced budget, the majority of the of 175,000 troops deployed around the globe would return home9. When that occurs, it safe to assume that chaos will ensue. Likely not at first, but over time regional conflicts would surely intensify without a strong US presents. Let’s just hope overall stability remains as it is today.

Debt Restructuring

Even if America balances its budget by following these sensible suggestions, it will have absolutely zero chance of paying back its tremendous debt. At nearly $30 trillion dollars, it is laughable to think it will ever be paid by anything other than inflation10. To put that into perspective, the total value for all publicly trade US companies is only around $48 trillion11. Obviously, America has other wealth, but the point is that finding ‘extra’ or ‘disposable’ money to pay off that debt is simply impossible.

Of course, we are told that the Federal Reserve can print as much money as it likes12. Functionally that is true. However, realistically, printing money would result in an inflation nightmare. The US is already experiencing sharp increases in prices since the pandemic13. Imagine how bad it would be if the Fed printed another $30 trillion to pay off the debt!

The only way out is a restructuring of debt. This will occur by either defaulting on the bonds or by creating a new currency. If history is any guide, you can expect a “New Dollar” sometime in the next 10 – 50 years. It will almost certainly replace the existing dollar at an exchange rate of 1000-to-1 or more. For a real life example, look no further than Mexico’s New Peso14. In either case, defaulting will wipe out bond holders and will decimate America’s purchasing power.

Conclusion

This post may sound like doom and gloom. Instead, think of it as a wake-up call. The sooner the American public realizes the obvious truth, the sooner corrective actions can heal our dying, bleeding nation. However, if America waits for a crisis, things may be much, much worse. We should avoid the pending crisis at all cost. The future of America, and likely global stability, depends on it. If America experiences hyperinflation like Weimar Germany15, there is no limit to how bad things will be.

Concordia

In the book, Concordia, There Must be a Better Way, a team of dedicated pioneers establishes a new nation. They reject deficit spending and fiat currency. In its place, they use cryptocurrency and balance spending with taxes. Not only does this limit the growth of government, it assures a long-term, stable balance sheet, something the US hasn’t known for over a century.

What would you do if you had the opportunity to start from scratch? How would you balance freedom, liberty, and justice, while assuring that investors are rewarded for taking a risk on your enterprise.

To found out what happens, buy the book now on Amazon. It is an exciting novel that challenges your assumptions and entertains you in the process.

Recommend Reading

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Footnotes

  1. The 5 Poorest U.S. Presidents
  2. The Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Is Bleak
  3. Tenth Amendment Center
  4. Welfare before the Welfare State
  5. How many Countries in Europe?
  6. U.S. Defense Spending Compared to Other Countries
  7. Military expenditure (% of GDP)
  8. America’s Defense Budget Is Bigger Than You Think
  9. Infographic: US military presence around the world
  10. U.S. National Debt Clock
  11. Total Market Value of U.S. Stock Market
  12. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
  13. Consumer price index October
  14. New Pesos Introduced in Mexico
  15. Weimar Germany Hyperinflation Explained

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