It has been over two years since the arrival of covid. The disease spread around the globe faster than any other known pathogen. According to official / government numbers, it has globally infected over 250 million people and is responsible for over 5 million premature deaths. It is by far the largest public health event since the Spanish Flu1.
Media Coverage
Regardless of who you are or where you live, this disease has impacted your life. More specifically, the response to this disease has impacted your life, whether or not you actually contracted the virus. From its initial outbreak, it has been difficult to impossible to obtain factual, unbiased information. This is especially true with regards to the media. Instead of calmly working to inform the public, the media stoked fear. They repeated half-truths and cherry picked numbers for ratings2.
Since the start of the pandemic, I’ve personally tracked the state of Georgia’s officially published numbers. Every day, I review the numbers and save them in a spreadsheet. The Department of Health publishes the case and death counts for Georgia every business day. I remember last summer, when the initial wave of covid was subsiding. The daily new infection counts dropped everyday for 2 straight weeks. However, one day the numbers were double the previous day, albeit still many times lower than the peak.
That night on the local news, the main headline was, you guessed it, “Covid rates doubled!” No mention of two weeks of declining numbers. No mention that, although double the previous day, the numbers were still relatively low. Nothing but panic and fear. Yes, their headline was factual, but only in the most narrow and misleading way. Of course, that was just one night. The media has squeezed every ounce of panic possible from the pandemic to boost ratings and turn a quick buck34.
Facts vs. Fiction
Despite a near total obsession with the virus, finding unbiased information is virtually impossible. Worse, the government used the virus as an excuse to push tech censorship5. This is a new kind of censorship, driven by data analytics and machine learning. There isn’t a person reading your posts. Instead, exceptionally sophisticated software systems processes every email, text, and social media post6.
The information exists, but it can’t be found on social media (censored) or the news, which is nothing more than panic porn. So what do we know? How deadly is the virus? How contagious is the virus? What are the risk factors? Do masks work? Is the vaccine effective at stopping the spread? Is the vaccine safe? These are such common questions, you would think that this information would be ubiquitous. I will do my best to detail the facts and save my commentary for the conclusion.
Virus
Like all of my blog posts, I’ve included links to all my sources. I will use the state of Georgia as an example, but it is important to understand that numbers vary due to demographic differences across states, regions, and countries. Put another way, there is no single answer based strictly upon data. Therefore, I’ll use a reliable source that I trust7.
Let’s start with the most controversial number, the death rate. Based solely upon reported data (confirmed deaths / confirmed cases), the overall death rate in Georgia is 2.0%. The hospitalization rate is 6.9%. Both of these numbers are loaded with qualifications and I urge you to do your own research. However, I believe these numbers are good starting point.
Adjustments
The biggest issue with these calculation is the lack of knowledge. They are based on results from testing facilities across the state. They do not, and can not, include people that contracted covid without getting tested. The CDC estimates that roughly 1 in 4 cases are picked up by reporting and 1 in 1.32 deaths are account by reporting8. Given those estimates, the adjusted death rate in Georgia becomes 0.66%.
To put that number into perspective, 0.66% means 2 out of every 300 infected people will die. For comparison, the seasonal flu kills 2 out of ever 2000 infected. So there is no doubt that the virus is more deadly than the season flu, at least on the margin. However, the flu has been around for ages and accrues more victims every year. Once covid reaches a long steady state, I have no doubt that its marginal / yearly death rates will approximate the seasonal flu9.
Finally, when compared to other viruses, its death rate is minimal. Here are some other notable pathogens: Ebola 40%, Bird Flu 39.3%, Mers 34.4% and SmallPox 30%10. We can safely conclude that covid is bad compared to the seasonal flu, but nothing compared to killer viruses that have plagued mankind.
Risk Factors
None of the mentioned stats include risk factors. Instead, they are bulk numbers across entire populations. This means the numbers are interesting, but not very useful for public policy. It is common knowledge that age is a major risk factor. To see that in Georgia’s numbers, let’s look at 10-17 versus 70-79. For teenagers, the adjust rate is 0.004% or 4 in every 100,000 cases. However, people in their 70’s face an adjusted rate of 3.4% (10.33% without adjustment.)
Given this enormous difference, the public health response should have been vastly different from what we’ve experienced. Children and teenagers are at virtually no risk and shouldn’t live with restrictions or fear. Older populations, however, should take sensible precautions. Especially if they have other risk factors, i.e. comorbidities.
I doubt this is common knowledge, but the biggest risk factor beyond age is Flu and Pneumonia11. Some other risks are Respiratory Failure, Diabetes, Hypertensive Disease, and Cardiac Arrest. So it would seem that covid opportunistically kills old people and those with severe chronic illnesses.
Masks
Anytime I debate the efficacy of masks, it always comes down to a study. I can find a study that shows they don’t work and they can find a study that shows they do. This, however, is beside the point. The real question is whether mask mandates work. For this, the evidence is overwhelmingly negative12. There are likely many reasons why this is the case, but the most important is that people don’t want to be forced to wear them. Just watch how slowly people drink to have time without their masks (common on airplanes.)
From my personal experiences, I have a wood working shop in my basement and routinely wear N-95 masks when using my large saws. These saws kick up a tremendous amount of sawdust that permeates the air. Without a mask, my nose and lungs would be filled with sawdust, so I religiously wear one and, most importantly, I wear it correctly. But even with a mask on, it is common for some sawdust to get into my nose and lungs after a long day of cutting (I’ll skip the side effects for you.) The simple fact is that even the highest quality masks aren’t perfect. And sawdust is hundreds of times larger than the coronavirus, so their effectiveness against the virus can only be worse.
Vaccine
What about the vaccine? The government promised that we could get back to life once the vaccine was widely available13. Just look around the globe and it should be clear that the vaccine isn’t slowing the spread of the virus. Further, governments are happy to keep people locked up and masked14.
What about hospitalization? There are all sorts of wild claims that vaccination reduces the chance of hospitalization15. The numbers simply don’t back these claims. In Georgia, there have been over 47,000 hospitalization in 2021 despite widespread vaccination, especially in vulnerable populations. The whole year of 2020 had less than 43,000. Georgia saw a huge outbreak between July and November similar to the winter outbreak, including widespread hospitalizations. During this period, many ICU units were pushed to the max16.
If the claims were remotely true, then there wouldn’t have been a second wave in GA and the hospitals would have had plenty of spare capacity. And the 2nd wave occurred during the summer months, which is usually a slow period for colds and flu in GA. Before the outbreak, over half of GA’s population had at least one dose of the vaccine17.
Vaccine Safety
Unfortunately, the safety of the vaccine is shrouded in mystery. Over 4 billion people have received the vaccine, more than half of the Earth’s population18. Social media has buzzed with reports of side effects for the ‘jab’. Unfortunately, these side effects are real, and life threatening in some cases. Despite how compelling the case on social media, these specific stories don’t paint a full picture of its safety.
According to official sources (like the FDA), the vaccine is considered safe. There are plenty of studies in progress and I’m sure many more will follow during the next couple of decades19. There can be little doubt that scientists and drug companies will study and know more about covid than any other virus. One thing is for sure, there are plenty of test subjects. More than anything, I recommend you do your own research. There is no single answer or recommendation. Find a doctor you trust and get their advice.
Conclusion
The response to covid has turned the world upside down. Sadly, millions of people have unnecessarily died from suicides and missed screenings. It is impossible to know whether deaths would be better or worse had the response been different. However, it should be clear that the one-size fits all approach is misguided and ineffective.
Continuing the failed policies of 2020 and 2021 is foolish and will fail. Locking down entire populations is stupid and solely based upon panic and fear. There is zero science to back lockdowns. Further, masking as public policy doesn’t work. Individuals should always have the option to wear them, but forcing masks upon an unwilling populace is foolish and ineffective.
And despite an extensive rollout of the vaccine, the virus has continued to mutate and spread. It is safe to assume this trend will continue, likely for many years. By my estimates, it will take at least two more years to spread to enough Georgians (and the world in general) to reach heard immunity. By then, I have no doubt that the virus will mutate to the point where it can re-infect people.
To summarize, covid is now part of the everyday world. It is hear to stay. It will continue to outbreak each year during cold and flu season. The quicker people and governments deal with this reality, the quicker life can resume as it should, as we all deserve after two years of nonsense.
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I am not sure what this article is about. Admittedly I read it quickly. I believe vaccines, though not completely effective, are useful, especially for older people and immune compromised people. I think not getting vacation is equivalent to ignoring the needs of others. “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you” seems to be the correct action to me.