What the Inevitable Breakup of America Will Look Like

With the current state of American politics, national divorce, particularly into red and blue states, has become a mainstream idea¹. From separatist movements in California to the Free State Project in New Hampshire, Americans across the country are tired of partisan politics. With dismal approval ratings, it seems nobody likes Congress². Add a string of polarizing presidents, and it is no wonder divorce looks good.

Empires Fall

Before a national divorce is possible, however, the American Empire must be dissolved³. The American public is in denial about its status as an empire. But any honest assessment of the US Military can only conclude that the US is indeed an empire. With over 750 international bases, the American military dominates every corner of the globe⁴. Additionally, the US has been involved in so many regime changes that it becomes impossible to deny US Imperialism⁵.

With so much involvement overseas, it seems implausible that the military would allow a state or a group of states to secede. The only time it was tried, of course, secession resulted in monumental failure. As the Empire stands now, any state that secedes would surely face economic sanctions, if not out right occupation and/or war.

But eventually the Empire will fall. History teaches us that all empires are destined to fail. Some fall as a result of war, while others fall from economic collapse⁶. But whatever the form, the end of the Empire will usher a new age globally and open the possibility of national divorce. So what would a divorce look it?

Divorce

Let’s rule out an unlikely scenario. The idea that the US will split into two countries along red and blue lines is almost laughable. Besides the obvious geographic issues, most states are purple⁷. Further, a country split along the red-blue divide shows that the US democracy is healthy and requires politicians to appeal beyond their base to win elections. Unless there is a large political or demographic shift, it is exceptionally unlikely that states would split from the union along party lines.

If not red and blue, then what would motivate separation? The most obvious reason is economics. Simply put, if a state is better off independent, then why wouldn’t it separate? Economically, there are huge variations in the amount of money received by different states from federal spending⁸. Why should people in Kansas (last on the list) pay taxes that benefit people in New Mexico (first on the list)?

Culture is another obvious reason. Culturally the nation has been drifting apart for decades. The term fly-over state says a lot about culture and the stark differences between large coastal cities and the rest of the nation⁹. As immigration continues to shape demographics, culture will further diverge between large multi-ethnic, multi-cultural cities vs. traditional America.

How will Divorce Occur?

When thinking about a split, it is important to stress that secession will likely occur at the state level. Why? Simple. States already have governments that could easily transition into national governments. The other benefit, of course, is that only two governments need to approve: the federal and the seceding state. Anything smaller, like a county attempting to secede, would require additional layers of approval (local, state and federal). Finally, most states are large enough to become credible, self-governing nations.

For a state to secede, the state itself must have a referendum / plebiscite and Congress must pass a bill to approve it. That’s it. Since the Constitution doesn’t specifically address secession, many scholars claim states can never leave. However, that is delusional. If Congress has the power to create, merge, and split states and territories, then clearly it can dissolve states too¹⁰. Besides, the Supreme Court wouldn’t think about overruling a successful state referendum and approval from Congress and the President.

Similar to Brexit, approval from Congress would only be the beginning. The departing state and the US Government would need to settle numerous issues. For instance, what happens to military bases in the state? What about federal property in the state? Other issues include apportionment of US debt, social security payments, and citizenship. With as slowly as Congress moves, this process could take years to decades to fully resolve, if ever.

Foreign Involvement

Historically, foreign nations have backed many independence movements. The American Revolution is a great example¹¹. Without help from France, the colonials would have surely failed.

Of course, a war of independence is not the only way in which foreign interference can influence secession movements. It is unlikely that Kosovo would exist without the backing from the US¹². International pressure, specifically sanctions, can heavily influence the outcome of independence movements. For instance, East Timor would still be occupied by Indonesia if not for hefty international sanctions¹³.

It is hard to picture now, but international pressure could heavily influence secession of various states. China would be interested in an independent Hawaii and Canada might be interested in acquiring Maine or Vermont. However, If other independence movements are good examples, international pressure will only occur after severe human rights abuses.

Conclusion

Nations and empires come and go. At some point, the United State will dissolve. But first, the Empire must pull back. This will only happen with either an enormous financial realignment away from the US Dollar or from a significant war where the US loses (likely WWIII). Until then, secession is fanciful and wishful thinking. I think out of the two scenarios, an internal / economic collapse is the more likely outcome, since nobody wants to see WWIII between nuclear superpowers.

Whether the US Empire recedes in decades or centuries, the military will eventually come home. And when it finally does, secession will be possible, especially if the empire falls due to an economic collapse. When secession occurs, the break away nation will almost certainly consist of one or more whole states. Further, there is no reason to think a few states will break away. If I had to put money on it, I would guess 5 – 10 new countries would emerge from the ashes of a military or economic collapse.

Finally, as for timing, it would be foolish to put a timeline on it. However, I think it is premature to assume it would occur any time soon. In fact, I doubt I would live to see it, assuming I live another 50 or so years. For those seeking independence from Washington in our lifetimes, they would do well to look outside of the borders of the US.

Concordia

In the book, Concordia, There Must be a Better Way, a team of dedicated pioneers establishes a new nation. They assume that secession is far too risky and unobtainable. Instead, they purchase unoccupied land and start from scratch. The land is completely unoccupied, which gives them the freedom to comprehensively redesign the state.

What would you do if you had the opportunity to start from scratch? How would you balance freedom, liberty, and justice, while assuring that investors are rewarded for taking a risk on your enterprise.

To found out what happens, buy the book now on Amazon. It is an exciting novel that challenges your assumptions and entertains you in the process.

Additional Reading

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