Time is Running out for Zelenskyy and Ukraine

As the war unfolds, Russia is on the verge of complete victory in the Donbas region. Ukraine’s strategy of never retreating has bought their military some time, but at a tremendous cost of life and property. Russia’s relentless artillery bombardments have devastated Ukraine’s military equipment and pushed the defending soldiers to their breaking points. The situation for Zelenskyy’s regime is bleak, unless something drastically changes.

With Allies Like These, Who Needs Enemies

In a previous post, I argued that the West should arm and aid Ukraine. I envisioned Ukraine’s military retreating to defendable positions with an intense insurgence aided by the West. But this hasn’t happened. In fact, it’s been the complete opposite. America and UK have aided Zelenskyy, but only under the condition of total war, which ruled out any potential peace treaty¹. Further, it ruled out ceding territory for better tactical positions.

Initially, their strategy seemed to work. This was especially evident in Mariupol. In a completely hopeless defense, instead of retreating to fight another day, the city was defended to the absolute breaking point. As a result, the Russian advanced stalled. The only way the Russians could capture the city was to complete destroy it and starve out the defending soldiers. Eventually the brave defenders had no choice but to lay down their arms. The surrender at Mariupol was the turning point in the war, with Russia capturing 1,700 POWs².

Now, the land bridge between Crimea and Moscow is complete³. The Russians have train and truck service to resupply their Western front. Although the Ukrainians stalled Russia, they ultimately suffered devastating losses. And this pattern continues to repeat itself across the entire Donbas region resulting in huge losses. Zelenskyy’s regime said they lose 100-200 men and 500+ injured every day.

Time is Running Low

The current rate of attrition is clearly unsustainable. And the current strategy risks a total defeat of the Ukrainian military, which ironically is exactly what Putin wanted⁴. If Russia continues to advance, the entire Donbas will be under their control, the Ukrainian military will be defeated, and Russia will be in a position to advance West towards Odesa and beyond the Dnipro River.

So what can be done? First, Ukraine should seek a political solution. This isn’t just my position. Even Henry Kissinger said that the Zelenksyy regime has less than two months to find a political solution⁵. But if this doesn’t occur, the Ukrainian military must change its strategy. Instead of directly confronting the Russians and fighting to the last bloc of every town, they should cede territory and take up stronger defensive positions.

Western Heavy Equipment

Ukraine is a large country. Other than Russia, It has the most land in all of Europe⁶. They can afford to cede ground while they wait for America’s promised heavy equipment⁷. American Howitzers could neutralize Russia’s current strategy of medium to long range bombardments. But the $40 billion aid package will take time to reach the front lines.

In the meantime, Ukraine is losing their best soldiers with a self-defeating strategy of no retreat. They risk not having a meaningful military to arm once Western aid finally arrives. And even when aid becomes available, it may not matter much. For example, many Javelins and Stingers are useless, since Russia changed its tactics to rely on artillery with further range Ukraine’s shoulder mounted missiles. So they remain safely outside of Ukrainian reach while they bomb the living shit out of the poor men ordered to defend impossible positions.

Even with some of the best gear on the Earth, Ukrainian infantry is losing hope⁸. Cases of desertion are growing and some have even resorted to selling their gear on the black market. For a low price of $30,000 dollars you can buy American high-tech anti-tank missiles⁹. In a truly tragic twist, the only buyers for these vastly discounted missile (costs $250,000 to produce) with likely be Russians.

Current Situation

War Map of Ukraine – June 6th, 2022 (Al Jazeera)

With a renewed focus and clear objectives, the Russian military has slowly but surely advanced in the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions. The main action is near the small town of Severodonetsk, where the Siverskyi Donets River slows Russia’s westward advance. While they inch west, the Russians recently broke through from the north at Izyum. This greatly endangers any potential retreat for the defending Ukrainians. If earlier patterns repeat, I expect another long hold out in Severodonetsk resulting in the death or capture of all defending troops.

This ridiculous waste of lives mirrors the whole war at large. Despite an extreme lack of heavy equipment and men, Zelenskyy’s military launched a counterattack near Kherson. As hopeless as it was foolish, this offensive is sure to waste the precious lives of more innocent men¹⁰.

Despite the irrationally positive spin of Western media, the situation on the ground is grim. Without major changes in June and July, Ukraine will struggle for existence as a nation. Supplies from NATO will help, but may not be enough to slow the advance. Russian video shows the destruction of Italian supplied Howitzers¹¹. With complete air superiority, there is no reason to believe future equipment will fair any better.

Odesa

I have not doubt that Putin has his eyes on Odesa. Assuming his forces prevail in the east, I expect a major battle for Odesa. With it, Russia would gain complete control of the Ukraine’s Black Sea access. NATO and Zelenskyy should focus their efforts on defending this incredibly strategic port city. Normally, it is Ukraine’s primary port for grain exports and consumer goods imports. However, since the war started, Russians war ships and Ukrainian mines make the route impassable.

This blockage stops virtually all export of grain from Ukraine. Both Turkey and Russia offered to help export their grain. Instead of agreeing to remove mines from the harbor, Kiev wisely rejected the offered¹². It would be crazy to trust anything Putin says while his armies continue to march.

Conclusion

So what can be done? As long as Zelenskyy continues his strategy, not much. Time, men and morale are running short. The 40,000+ Russian army in the Donbas will likely achieve their objectives by the end of summer. Without a political solution, the rampage will continue until the onset of winter. Odesa is most likely their final destination, making Ukraine a land-locked nation.

Ukraine has some positives in their favor. The Dnipro River is a natural boundary, which will be extremely difficult for Russia to cross. American long range artillery and equipment will eventually arrive. When it does, expect Russian tactics to adjust, likely with much less success than now. If all else fails, winter will stop major combat.

However, I would be surprised if they haven’t reached a cease fire by winter. Even Putin will be tired of losing men and equipment. This war has been costly for both sides, not just Ukraine. Unfortunately for Zelenskyy, any peace treaty will be costly, very costly. Politically he will be a loser and Russia will ask for recognition of all captured territory, not just Crimea. My biggest concern with any treaty is enforcement. The previous Minsk agreements were colossal failures. Why should we expect anything different this time?