What is the Method Behind Putin’s Madness?

The war in Ukraine is the biggest foreign policy story of this century. From a world diplomacy point of view, the war is significantly more important than the invasion of Iraq. Since the beginning of Putin’s invasion, the media and the public have struggled to understand Putin’s goals and motivations. Some even question his sanity¹.

Putin is not insane. He isn’t a monster hell bent on death. And, from his point of view, invading Ukraine is sensible, possibly even logical. To come to that conclusion, you need to understand the corner he is trapped in. Let’s dig into Russia and its position in world politics.

Global Hegemon

Since the fall of the USSR, we’ve lived in a unipolar world. Russia still has thousands of nuclear weapons, but otherwise is a minor player on the world stage. They are still a great regional power, as seen by their invasion of Ukraine, but lack in capability to influence global politics. The same can be said for China, although clearly they are on rise. And, the two great powers from WWII, Germany and Japan, remain militarily neutered.

With the unique position as the global hegemon, America reshaped numerous governments in its image. This on full display in Eastern European and is ultimately the cause of the conflict in Ukraine. But what does reshaping a government look like? And why would Russia or Putin care if Ukraine becomes more Western? To understand that, you need to explore exactly how American foreign policy works.

Neoliberalism

Most governments under the protection of the US are like America. Some people call them Western Democracies. Communist simply call them Capitalists countries. South Americans call them Neoliberal regimes. I like to call this style of government the Washington Consensus. Whatever the term, there is a certain pattern for playing ball with the US (unless you are powerful enough to go your own way). In fact, this pattern is clearly described in the terms for joining the EU and NATO².

These governments must have: a) democracy, b) support free trade, c) military must submit to the US, and d) use the dollar or a similar fiat currency. Generally speaking they support open borders and are members of numerous regional trade alliances (like NAFTA, EU, etc). In exchange for these conditions, the full power and might of the US nuclear arsenal protects your nation. Sounds like a great deal, right?

Sovereign in Name Only

For most nations, especially small ones, it is a great deal. The evidence clearly backs this fact as numerous weak nations in Eastern Europe flocked into NATO and the EU³. But there are trade offs. First and most important, nations lose sovereignty over foreign policy. When NATO goes to war, every nation in the block goes to war too. Alliances like this were the reason a minor conflict in the Balkans turned into the Great War (WWI). Since war is the most important function of a government, it is a big deal to lose control over foreign policy.

Democracy is good. Anybody will tell you that. But democracy hasn’t necessarily produced its advertised results. It is true that people vote for their leaders, but their leaders do not represent them. Instead, money pours into the democratic process and guides policy towards multinationals and free trade. Further, media greatly influences the results of elections⁴. With the biggest media machine in the world, the US has free reign to manipulate elections in small nations. In the rare case where an election goes against the hegemon, the US instantly challenges the results and black-balls the winning regime (see Venezuela for a perfect example).

All About Trade

The final loss of sovereignty comes in the form of free trade. In principle, low trade barriers help everybody. In practice, however, free trade forces local economies to hyperspecialize and lower wages to battle intense foreign competition⁵. Lower wages are obviously bad for the wage earner. Hyper-specialization links the economy in such a way that even large agricultural export nations would starve without food from aboard. Once economies are interlinked with the global market, it is exceptionally painful to withdraw. Further, international sanctions have much larger effects on interlinked economies then they otherwise would, which clearly erodes sovereignty.

So how does any of this affect Russia? The first is obvious: Putin is an absolute dictator. The US works with dictators, but only under special circumstance (like Saudi Arabia) and only if the benefits outweigh the costs. Without worrying about the West meddling in elections, Putin is free to negotiate for terms that are better for him and Russia. As a large commodity exporter, Russia is also free to negotiate bilateral agreements. Finally, Russia’s military, especially its nuclear weapons, give Putin complete autonomy on the internal stage.

The Sovereign Man

Put simply, Russia is a completely sovereign nation and Putin is fully in charge of it. He is The Sovereign Man. The US has virtually no power over him or his nation. This gives Putin freedom that most leaders simply don’t have. In fact, the only person on Earth with more power than Putin is Biden / US President. And even Biden’s power is tempered by America’s institutions, which means Putin may very well be the most power man on earth⁶.

Bringing it back to Ukraine, it should be clear that Putin is in a unique position to execute this war. In my last blog post, I discussed some of the possible outcomes. Many people think Putin wants to conquer Ukraine as part of rebuilding the Soviet Empire. After watching Russia’s military, I think Putin wants to control strategic areas, like the Donbas and Crimea, without the tremendous losses required for a full occupation. However, he has called for the complete demilitarization of Ukraine, which can only be obtained by a long and bloody war⁷.

But the TV says that Putin is Crazy

One of the major complaints about Russia’s conduct is the lack of speed⁸. Combined with attacks across the entire nation, and most Western observers are down right confused with Russia’s strategy. However, this confusion is caused by western biases. Western nations fight war from a distance. Boots on the ground means causalities, which always complicates media narratives. Instead, the US relies heavily on missiles, bombs and drones. President Obama used so many drone strikes that he was infamously knowns as the Drone President⁹.

War is different in Russia. Russia lost more people in WWII than any other nation (almost 20x that of the US), which left a deep, indelible mark on the Russian consciousness¹⁰. Even after WWII, the Russian people suffered through decades of harsh absolute dictators under communist rule. Ironically, Putin’s reign has been the most stable, free, and safe era in modern Russian history. It is safe to conclude that Russians view losses differently than we do in the West. For better or for worse, this gives them a different perspective on war and how to conduct war. This is especially true with Putin, who believes NATO expansion into Ukraine is worth fighting and dieing for.

What are the Goals and Strategies?

Given this different perspective, Russia’s invasion looks more logical / strategic. Instead of leading with weeks of shock and awe, Russian forces have streamed in from the north, south and east. If you wanted a quick war and decapitation of Ukraine’s leadership, this would be complete madness. However, if you wanted to indefinitely occupy large parts of Ukraine, then their war plan looks sensible.

Further, the complete demilitarization of Ukraine appears to be their primary goal. Put into a different light, this means Putin want to destroy all military capabilities in Ukraine. The only way this is remotely possible is with huge numbers of troops on the ground. Again, with this goal in mind, their strategy of war on multiple fronts appears more sensible.

War Itself is Crazy, so Putin must be Nuts

The Russian strategy is different than the Western playbook and hopefully I’ve made it clear that these aren’t just random actions from a crazy man. But what about war itself? Isn’t it crazy to fight this war in the first place? The short answer is yes, but obviously this war deserves further insight. The long answer is more complicated. Putin has made it clear since 2008 that he would not allow Ukraine to join NATO. For years, nothing happened. All of this changed in 2013/2014 with the Maiden Revolution.

That was the final straw for Putin. By supporting a coup in Ukraine, the West made it clear that NATO will advance to Russia’s border with Ukraine and that NATO doesn’t care about Russia’s historical claim to dominate the region. Russia retaliated by annexing Crimea and armed rebels in the break away republics of the Donbas region. However, neither of these sufficiently addressed the underlying issue of NATO.

Russia is Next

After the failed US-backed coup attempt in Belarus of 2021, the global stage changed¹¹. Trump was out of office and Biden clearly supported regime change in Russia¹². Regime change happened in Ukraine (2014), and was attempted in Belarus (2021). Why not Russia itself? Putin would not be paranoid to think he is next. If I were in his shoes, it would be my top concern.

But how does this lead to war? Simple: nuclear weapons. NATO has plenty of them and would certainly put them in Ukraine. Ukraine has numerous locations to host nuclear-armed cruise missiles which could reach Moscow undetected. GAME, SET, MATCH! Putin knows this. America knows this. NATO knows this. It is common military knowledge. By accepting Ukraine in NATO, all of Putin’s nuclear deterrents are neutralized. So maybe it is crazy to fight a war in Ukraine, but this is a matter of life and death for Putin and his regime.

Oddly, even if NATO doesn’t accept Ukraine, President Zelensky recently said that Ukraine would get nuclear weapons one way or the other. Speaking at a Munich Security conference, Zelensky said he would abandon the Budapest Memorandum and seek nuclear weapons¹³. I doubt this affected Putin’s decision to attack since the planning was already well underway, but it definitely added fuel to Putin burning rage against NATO and Ukraine.

Conclusion

Any time a nuclear power goes to war it is import to understand their strategies and motivations. It is no surprise that our media has failed to adequately report on these issues. Instead of helping Americans understand our rival / enemy, they demonize Putin and shift all the blame to Russia. Obviously, I am opposed to this war, but NATO is the underlying cause of this war, plain and simple. Like I wrote in another blog, the best option going forward is for NATO to say once and for all that Ukraine will never be a member. Unfortunately, I think even if this happened, Russia’s war would press on.

Putin’s war is evil. Russia will continue killing innocent Ukrainians. But it is not irrational. Putin was boxed into a corner and war was his only way out. Maybe this is by design. Maybe the West wants Russia bogged down in a long, drawn out war in Ukraine. Judging by Russia’s advance in the conflict, it looks like they are prepared for the long haul. By attacking in late winter, Russia has all summer to conduct operations until the harshness of winter freezes advancements. Further, by sending a hundred thousand troops and miles of equipment, Russia is planning for a long war with Ukraine. I have no doubt this conflict will last for quite sometime.

Concordia

In the book, Concordia, There Must be a Better Way, a team of dedicated pioneers establishes a new nation. Unlike the breakaway republics of the Donbas, they have permission from the Chilean government to peacefully build the country of Concordia.

Unfortunately for these intrepid pioneers, Concordia struggles for international recognition. Similar to the Ukrainian conflict, the great Western powers refuse to recognize their independence. This leads to conflict, which stretches the nation to its breaking point.

To found out what happens, buy the book on Amazon. It is an exciting novel that challenges your assumptions and entertains you in the process.

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Also, you might like my other blog posts on the war in Ukraine: